Market Outlook

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Jul 2019

Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor?

Market Outlook

Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor?

Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor?

Jul 2019

The stock market is hovering around its all-time high, and yet investor bullishness is surprisingly low. $150 billion has flowed out of global equity funds year-to-date, despite the fact that the market is off to its best start to a year since 1997.¹ The week leading up to July 4th experienced $28 billion of net outflows, one of the worst weeks in the past 12 years,² and yet the S&P 500 is hovering around 3,000. What gives? Andrew Slimmon makes the case that the stock market is a forward predictor, and that while a summer correction is a strong possibility, the market will be well above 3,000 by year end. He summarizes his position with a reference to investor behavior; “If there is a high level of conviction that we are late cycle. . .then we are not.”

Andrew Slimmon

Head of Applied Equity Advisors Team

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Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor?

¹Goldman Sachs: July 1, 2019

²Evercore ISI Morning Economic Forecast. July 3rd, 2019

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