Insights
Macro Insights
Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor?
|
Market Outlook
|
• |
July 16, 2019
|
Isn’t the Stock Market a Forward Predictor? |
The stock market is hovering around its all-time high, and yet investor bullishness is surprisingly low. $150 billion has flowed out of global equity funds year-to-date, despite the fact that the market is off to its best start to a year since 1997.1 The week leading up to July 4th experienced $28 billion of net outflows, one of the worst weeks in the past 12 years,2 and yet the S&P 500 is hovering around 3,000. What gives? Andrew Slimmon makes the case that the stock market is a forward predictor, and that while a summer correction is a strong possibility, the market will be well above 3,000 by year end. He summarizes his position with a reference to investor behavior; “If there is a high level of conviction that we are late cycle. . .then we are not.”
![]() |