Insights
Evergrande: What If The Cavalry Never Comes?
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Global Multi-Asset Viewpoint
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October 31, 2021
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Evergrande: What If The Cavalry Never Comes? |
In early September, Evergrande erupted onto the front pages of newspapers and news sites causing a mini-panic in global risk assets. Within six weeks, investors went from wondering if Evergrande would become China’s Lehman Brothers to assuming the Chinese government would “take care of it” (i.e. manage the bankruptcy to prevent contagion). This assumption is perfectly plausible since this is how China has handled most previous bankruptcies of large corporates (e.g. HNA), local governments (e.g. debt-swap program in 2014 and debt-loan swap program in 2019) or financial institutions (e.g. Huarong Asset Management in 2021, Baoshang, Jinzhou, and Hengfeng in 2019). In addition, most directly related assets have already seen enormous corrections: Evergrande stock is down -90% and the broader MSCI China Real Estate Index has dropped more than -50% since early 2018 (while global equities have been up +30% since then). Chinese banks have only had a modest -16% correction this year but have been underperforming for years (down -70% relative to global equities since 2009).
However, we suspect the consensus may be overoptimistic about Evergrande as its impact is likely to metastasize throughout the property market and the financial system. In addition, the consensus may not be taking into account how much the Chinese government’s objectives have been realigned in the last few years to match Xi Jinping’s new priorities, making an imminent easing and stimulus much less likely. Ultimately, as the problems become significant enough, policy will shift course and the traditional playbook will be implemented: liquidity surge; broad credit, fiscal, and even eventual property easing; bailouts; and rate cuts.
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Head of Global Multi-Asset Team
Global Multi-Asset Team
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Managing Director
Global Multi-Asset Team
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