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Services Inflation: Higher Hurdle for Further Upside
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November 03, 2022
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November 03, 2022
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Services Inflation: Higher Hurdle for Further Upside |
In October, equities across developed markets rallied. The U.S. was the best performer as the S&P 500 Index returned 8.1%1. In local currency terms, the MSCI Europe Index and MSCI Japan Index each returned 6.2% and 5.7% respectively1. In contrast, the MSCI EM Index (USD) fell 3.1%1. The energy sector rallied hard, with the MSCI ACWI Energy Index returning 18.0%1, far outperforming the other sectors. While monetary policy continues to tighten, inflation remains broad-based and far too elevated. The U.S. 10-Year yield was pressured higher, ending the month at 4.1%2 and the VIX peaked at 33.6 in mid-month, before easing somewhat to a level of 25.9 by month-end3.
U.S.: From goods to services inflation
Many expect U.S. inflation to plateau and subsequently fall, as supply chain constraints have eased meaningfully and goods inflation normalises. However, pressure remains elevated in another component of inflation: services. Historically stickier than the more volatile goods component, it may take longer to come down. The services sector is still exhibiting tight labour market conditions, creating wage pressure. In an economy heavily based on services, wage inflation may prove difficult to suppress. However, at the same time, some key categories within the Consumer Price Index (CPI), such as shelter and healthcare, are subject to significant lags. This can make it more challenging to isolate the ongoing impacts of a tight labour market and the lagged effects of the pandemic within the CPI.
Towards a more insular China
China’s 20th Party Congress held from 16 to 22 October, concluded with President Xi Jinping’s re-appointment for a third term. The reshuffle in his executive committee demonstrated that President Xi’s top priority is to concentrate power, as his committee predominantly now consists of people who should help further his stronghold. The present-day policy direction is likely to be maintained, with the zero-COVID policy dynamic expected to be in place longer than anticipated. There is an increased emphasis on national security, as opposed to growth and development, along with a further sharpening of focus on Taiwan’s re-unification with China.
Investment implications
We have maintained a stable allocation to equities throughout the month. We remain cautiously positioned given the headwinds that we continue to see for global markets as they could cause further volatility. We see residual downside to equities, especially with respect to earnings. It is in this context that we made the following tactical changes in October:
China A Equities
We moved from overweight to neutral in China A equities. We no longer expect China A to outperform global equities, due to a lack of positive catalysts.
UK Gilts
At the end of October, we reduced our underweight of UK gilts versus European government bonds, as the UK government’s policy U-turn and change in leadership reduces the risk of downside.
Short-Dated Mexican and Brazilian Bonds
For portfolios which permit, we added short-dated Mexican and Brazilian bond exposures. Both Mexico and Brazil are considerably ahead of the U.S. in terms of tightening monetary policy. Consequently, their short-dated bonds offer attractive carry, while we see the potential for FX upside in BRL and MXN in 2023.
Duration and U.S. 10-Year Treasuries
We moved from underweight to neutral duration on U.S. 10-Year Treasuries. U.S. 10-Year yields had risen significantly since we moved underweight in late August. Since then, the U.S. terminal rate has moved above 5.0%, rate cuts in 2023 have largely been priced out, real yields have moved above the top of our forecast range and financial conditions have re-tightened to YTD highs. The U.S. labour market remains resilient, but other segments of the economy, such as residential and non-residential investment, are showing growing signs of weakness. Moreover, valuations at current levels appear fair. Consequently, we see the risk to yields as more balanced.
Sterling (GBP)
We moved underweight sterling at the beginning of October, as we believed the fiscal deficit was likely to rise meaningfully following the tax cuts and support to households on energy bills. The twin deficit is at risk of being the highest on record over the next two years.
Euro (EUR)
We moved from overweight to neutral the euro versus the U.S. dollar. A higher risk premium may need to be applied to the euro, given the structural issues facing the eurozone. Also, we believe that the U.S. dollar’s strength is likely to continue, as long as flows to “safe haven” assets persist. Demand will likely remain high until the U.S. terminal rate peaks and global growth expectations bottom. In addition, we are looking out for catalysts, such as a capitulation in the S&P 500 and signs of the U.S. labour market starting to soften.
The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See Disclosure section for index definitions.
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Managing Director
Global Balanced Risk Control Team
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