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October 05, 2023

Is the worst of the monetary policy behind us?

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October 05, 2023

Is the worst of the monetary policy behind us?


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Is the worst of the monetary policy behind us?

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October 05, 2023

 
 

Equity markets fell rapidly for the second month, following a robust rally in the first half of 2023 as markets adjust to the new regime of heightened volatility and higher interest rates. The S&P 500 Index returned -4.8%1 (USD) while the MSCI Europe (EUR) Index fell 1.5%1. The MSCI Japan Index (JPY) remained marginally positive at 0.5%1. Emerging markets also remained in negative territory with the MSCI EM (USD) Index down 2.6%1. Regionally, the UK market gained significantly as the FTSE 100 Index (GBP) returned 2.4%1 partly due to its tilt towards the energy sector which was supported by a sharp rise in oil prices. The US 10-Year Treasury yield has been well over 4% in September, ending the month at 4.57%2, almost 50bps higher than August end, resulting in the biggest monthly change this year. Given the increase in volatility, the VIX Index has been rising throughout the month, reaching 17.62 at month end.

 
 

As expected, Federal Reserve officials left the interest rate unchanged in September. But even though the Fed is on the cusp of its potential terminal rate hike to fight inflation, officials warned that a higher-for-longer approach is likely to be needed to keep inflation under control as long as the economy is strong. While the market attempts to reconcile the higher for longer policy of the Fed amid concerns of a potential recession, it is also probable that another rate hike will occur in 2023. This policy stance could push the economy into a mild recession in the first six months of 2024. However, this could be good for markets as it does not erode the underlying strength of the economy. Moreover, markets may be able to weather a recession that arrives sooner and is milder, rather than a recession that arrives late and could result in a hard landing for the economy.

Financial markets averted further volatility on account of the US reaching its debt ceiling as the last-minute agreement between Republicans and Democrats to extend the government's funding for a further 45 days has postponed the decision on the 2024 budget until mid-November, when Congress will need to reach a decision on the current budget.

As economic headwinds diminish while monetary policy tightening persists, we believe diversification* should remain a priority for investors moving forward.

Investment Implications
We did not make a significant number of tactical adjustments and maintained our overall positioning in September as we are confident in our current position and remain aligned with the portfolios’ risk objectives. We maintain exposure to segments of the market that have lagged as they could catch up on the back of better-than-expected macro-outcome. We still prefer carry over duration and have been allocating to cash given elevated yields. We made the following tactical changes in September:

EURUSD
We downgraded our view on EURUSD exposure while still remaining positive, based on our updated assessment of the relative EU-US growth outlook and the challenges facing the Chinese economy, as we no longer see sustained upside in the EURUSD. Real yield differentials are likely to continue to move in favour of the US, opening the door for further EUR weakness.

Japanese Yen
We also downgraded our view on JPY to neutral as we believe that the Bank of Japan will likely disappoint the market by not adjusting policy in the near term.

The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  See Disclosure section for index definitions.

 
 
 
Tactical Positioning
We have provided our tactical views below:
 

Source: MSIM GBaR team. Previous view is as of 31 August 2023 and current view is as of 30 September 2023. For informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The tactical views expressed above are a broad reflection of our team’s views and implementations, expressed for client communication purposes. The information herein does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation or specific needs of any individual investor. The signals represent the GBaR team’s view on each asset class. A negative signal indicates a negative or underweight relative view, a positive signal indicates a positive or overweight relative view.

 
 

1 Bloomberg, 1-month returns, local currency unless otherwise stated, as of 30 September 2023.
2 Bloomberg, 30 September 2023.

*Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.

 
andrew.harmstone
 
jim.caron
Chief Investment Officer
Portfolio Solutions Group
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

RISK CONSIDERATION
There is no assurance that the Strategy will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them.  Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g. natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. portfolio liquidity) of events.  Accordingly, you can lose money investing in this portfolio. Please be aware that this strategy may be subject to certain additional risks. There is the risk that the Adviser’s asset allocation methodology and assumptions regarding the Underlying Portfolios may be incorrect in light of actual market conditions and the Portfolio may not achieve its investment objective. Share prices also tend to be volatile and there is a significant possibility of loss. The portfolio’s investments in commodity-linked notes involve substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value. In addition to commodity risk, they may be subject to additional special risks, such as risk of loss of interest and principal, lack of secondary market and risk of greater volatility, that do not affect traditional equity and debt securities. Currency fluctuations could erase investment gains or add to investment losses. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest-rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Equity and foreign securities are generally more volatile than fixed income securities and are subject to currency, political, economic and market risks. Equity values fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. Stocks of small-capitalization companies carry special risks, such as limited product lines, markets and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more established companies. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than risks associated with investments in foreign developed markets. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) shares have many of the same risks as direct investments in common stocks or bonds and their market value will fluctuate as the value of the underlying index does. By investing in exchange traded funds ETFs and other Investment Funds, the portfolio absorbs both its own expenses and those of the ETFs and Investment Funds it invests in. Supply and demand for ETFs and Investment Funds may not be correlated to that of the underlying securities. Derivative instruments can be illiquid, may disproportionately increase losses and may have a potentially large negative impact on the portfolio’s performance. A currency forward is a hedging tool that does not involve any upfront payment. The use of leverage may increase volatility in the Portfolio.

INDEX DEFINITIONS
The indexes shown in this report are not meant to depict the performance of any specific investment, and the indexes shown do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. The indexes shown are unmanaged and should not be considered an investment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.

MSCI Europe Index: The MSCI Europe Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 15 Developed Markets (DM) countries in Europe.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 27 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 1,417 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Japan Index: The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Japanese market.

S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalisation US stocks.

VIX ©: This is a trademarked ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options. Often referred to as the fear index or the fear gauge, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30-day period.

DISCLOSURES

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.

A separately managed account may not be appropriate for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the particular Strategy may include securities that may not necessarily track the performance of a particular index. Please consider the investment objectives, risks and fees of the Strategy carefully before investing. A minimum asset level is required.

For important information about the investment managers, please refer to Form ADV Part 2.

The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “the Firm”), and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or the investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.

This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information and the Firm has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third-party sources.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only.

The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.

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