| PATH • 12-Jan-2022 | |
Three Events and a Rally
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
As we enter 2022, Omicron continues to spread, amid a hawkish Fed and setbacks to Biden’s Build Back Better bill. That said, we expect equities to continue to outperform fixed income, and provide moderate returns, given the healthy growth outlook.
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| PATH • 10-Dez-2021 | |
Fed’s Hawkish Turn: Inflation No Longer “Transitory”
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Markets fell sharply in response to Omicron in November, and the rising uncertainty about how much the Fed may taper suggests maintaining a cautious risk exposure. See how we are responding to rates, shipping disruptions, energy prices and more.
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| PATH • 10-Nov-2021 | |
Winds are changing?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
As markets recovered in October and market volatility fell, we increased equity exposure while keeping an eye on rising energy prices, central bank tapering and China property risks. Read more on why we think market winds may be changing.
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| PATH • 08-Okt-2021 | |
Winter is Coming?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Winter is coming and growth is slowing – but still healthy. With equity valuations high, we have reduced risk as we see limited upside and fragile, risk-off sentiment. At the same time, we are seeking opportunities to take advantage of any excessive weakness.
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| PATH • 08-Sep-2021 | |
Jackson Hole: Eine gemäßigte Fed beruhigt die Märkte
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Die US-Notenbank macht angesichts der soliden und wachsenden Wirtschaft einen sehr zurückhaltenden Eindruck. Erfahren Sie, warum wir infolge hoher Bewertungen, steigender globaler regulatorischer Risiken und der Möglichkeit, dass die Fed einen geldpolitischen Fehler macht, zu Vorsicht raten.
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| PATH • 05-Aug-2021 | |
Drückt das geringe Emissionsvolumen die Renditen zehnjähriger US-Staatsanleihen?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Es mag widersprüchlich erscheinen, dass die Renditen zehnjähriger US-Staatsanleihen weiter fallen. Wir analysieren Faktoren, die wahrscheinlich einen Beitrag leisten und welche zu einem Richtungswechsel führen könnten.
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| PATH • 05-Jul-2021 | |
Die Fed strafft die Zügel, aber die Märkte lassen sich nicht aus der Ruhe bringen
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Die unerwartet restriktive Positionierung der Fed mit zwei Zinserhöhungen für 2023 wurde von den Märkten gelassen aufgenommen und der S&P erreichte Rekordhöhen. Auf längere Sicht sprechen die Fundamentaldaten, Bewertungen sowie die Marktstimmung jedoch für eine höhere Volatilität.
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| PATH • 11-Jun-2021 | |
US Inflation: Real or Noise?
Andrew Harmstone, Manfred Hui
Inflationary pressures are likely to persist in the second half of the year, with the potential for upside surprises. The GBaR team explain why these may be temporary effects, rather than the start of a new inflationary regime.
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| PATH • 10-Mai-2021 | |
The Problem is the P not the E
Andrew Harmstone
US equities are expensive, but valuations do not yet appear extreme enough to qualify as a bubble, given strong earnings growth and current low interest rates. With ample fiscal support and liquidity, we see limited downside risk in the short term.
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| PATH • 15-Apr-2021 | |
Developed Markets Leading the Charge
Andrew Harmstone
Rapid vaccine rollouts, combined with stimulative policy, have made Developed Markets and particularly the US, leaders of the global recovery. Yet there are reasons to be cautious, as record levels of equity issuance and inflows create a tug-of-war.
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| PATH • 18-Mär-2021 | |
Markets jitter, but economy on track
Andrew Harmstone
The prospect of inflation, rising interest rates and investor exuberance are making markets jittery. Yet economic recovery appears to be on track. Andrew Harmstone and his team discuss what this means for their portfolios.
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| PATH • 16-Feb-2021 | |
Socially Divided
Andrew Harmstone
The struggles of workers during the COVID-19 pandemic have brought into sharp focus long-standing social issues that affect every sector of the economy. The Global Balanced Risk Control Team looks at the investment implications.
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The Global Balanced Risk Control (GBaR) team is part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's (MSIM) broader Global Multi-Asset capability. The team uses a top-down global asset allocation approach within a clearly-defined, risk-controlled framework, targeting an agreed level of risk. The GBaR strategy is highly flexible in its asset allocation, enabling portfolio managers to dynamically adjust positioning across equities, fixed income and cash, to maintain a stable risk profile.
The team seeks not only to enhance participation in rising markets, but also provide protection from volatile down markets. They also allocate tactically within asset classes, for example between equity regions and fixed income sub-asset classes with the aim of adding value.
The GBaR team manages a variety of portfolios to a range of risk targets, which may be further customised to meet client requirements including capital growth, income and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.