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Februar 02, 2023

Window of Opportunity - MS INVF GBaR Fund

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Februar 02, 2023

Window of Opportunity - MS INVF GBaR Fund


Window of Opportunity - MS INVF GBaR Fund

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Februar 02, 2023


In January markets rebounded, providing a window of opportunity to capture returns. Towards the end of December, we began increasing risk to take advantage of this, and continued to add to risk assets during January. We see 2023 as a year of transition, with a number of opportunities in the first half, but also fat-tail risks to be managed.


A Year of Transtion

Though US inflation is moderating, the greatest risk we see is the potential for inflation to re-emerge in 2H2023, which could happen if the Federal Reserve stops hiking too early. In the meantime, we anticipate the reduction of macro events with negative tail risk including key factors such as moderating inflation, and a strong labour market supporting consumption. In many ways factors driving markets in 2023 appear to be behaving in the opposite direction to last year. Inflation peaking and falling (for now), central banks ending their tightening cycle, the US dollar stabilising or even weakening and China reopening, indicate it is time to act whilst markets are favourable.


We are therefore more constructive on both the global and US macro view. Supported by labour markets, we see a rising probability of the US Federal Reserve achieving a soft-landing. On the upside there is even the possibility of runaway markets. However, we are monitoring the labour market closely, as any deterioration could signal a re-emergence of negative tail risk.


Investment Implications

Against this positive backdrop, with the downside risk having diminished for now, as mentioned we have been increasing our exposure to risk assets since the end of December and throughout January. We remain positive global equities ex-US and have incorporated opportunities in credit and higher beta fixed income, such as emerging markets and high yield, which do well in a risk-on environment.

However, we are managing the tail risks through some partial offsets, cognisant that the environment could turn, should inflation pick up again. We have increased exposure to commodities, as a hedge against inflation. Whilst we have increased exposure to equities, recognising equities’ interest rate sensitivity, we are reducing fixed income duration. We have also been seeking higher yields, to offset the increased capital risk from equities, so have been emphasising high carry assets in fixed income and in equities, such as banks and energy.

We have provided the latest effective asset allocation weights of our Morgan Stanley Investment Funds (MS INVF) Global Balanced Risk Control Fund in the following table, as of 31 January 2023.

MS INVF Global Balanced Risk Control Fund of Funds (EUR) 4% – 10% 45.5 50.9 3.0 17.3 -16.8

*Synthetic cash created from derivatives positions.

We have provided the effective weights for 31 January 2023 at the time of publication. Weights may deviate marginally from these weights after publication due to data revisions.

Source: Global Balanced Risk Control team, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Allocations are subject to change on a daily basis and without notice. For information only and not a recommendation to buy or sell specific investment strategy. MS INVF standards for Morgan Stanley Investment Funds. 1. Volatility target is an indicative range. There is no assurance that the target will be attained.


Tactical Changes

We have provided the tactical changes to our views, made over January 2023:

European Banks Equities

We moved further overweight European banks, which have continued to benefit from higher rates in the eurozone, boosting net interest margins and benign asset quality trends, after a recession has been averted. Valuations slightly above recession trough levels are still discounting a lot of risks and we believe do not appropriately reflect the earnings growth over the coming year, nor the capital return to shareholders.

Japanese Equities

We moved underweight Japanese equities since we expect the yen to strengthen on general dollar weakness and on the expectation that the Bank of Japan will give up its yield curve control framework later in 2023, due to increasing inflationary pressures. The FX translation tailwind for Japanese earnings from a weaker yen in 2022 is thus likely to turn into a headwind.

Chinese Equities

We moved further overweight Chinese equities given China’s reopening, easing regulatory headwinds and a reprioritisation of growth, which we believe is likely to drive outperformance. Accumulated household savings are supporting consumption and growth in a post-lockdown China.

US Long Duration

We neutralised our US long duration exposure as disinflationary trends gain momentum in the short-term, which reduces upside risks to the Fed terminal rate. We expect long duration yields to remain range bound if recession risks do not materialise. 

Italian Government Bonds Duration

We neutralised Italian Government Bonds from our previous underweight stance. After a strong rise in 2022, yields are now at levels that offer significant carry compared to German Bunds. At the same time, spreads could compress further as GDP growth in the eurozone should re-accelerate over 1H 2023, after the significant decline in energy prices.

USD High Yield

We moved from underweight to neutral in USD High Yield. Near-term recession risks have diminished on a sustained strong labour market and a more pragmatic approach by the Fed, which signalled a pause to rate hikes some time in 1H 2023 and which supports some risk taking. However, USD High Yield still screens expensive compared to EUR High Yield. 

EUR High Yield

We moved overweight European High Yield, to take advantage of spread valuations that still incorporated a “gas premium” compared to USD High Yield, given the European energy crisis of 2022. Spreads should continue to tighten as European GDP growth troughs in the winter, reducing credit risks and encouraging risk taking by investors. The asset class saw significant fund outflows over 2022 and we expect market participants will want to re-build positions over the coming months.  

Emerging Markets Hard Currency Debt

We moved further overweight Emerging Markets Hard Currency Debt (EM HC), given emerging market economies are ahead of developed markets in terms of their rate hiking efforts to control inflation. EM HC still offers attractive carry and spreads could compress, as global growth stabilises on China re-opening and Europe emerging from its energy crisis. A more benign outlook for US duration supports EM HC further.

Mexican 10-Year Yields

We moved from neutral to overweight Mexican 10-Year Bonds, given elevated real yields, accelerating inflows into EM Debt and easing Mexican inflation driven by slowing food inflation, as indicated by already declining fertiliser prices.

Brent Crude Oil

We moved overweight brent crude oil at the end of December and increased this overweight during January. The recent selloff appeared excessive in light of a likely tight market throughout 2023. Fundamentals are positive, as we see upside risks to oil demand from the reopening of the Chinese economy. At the same time there are downside risks to Russian supply, as sanctions fully come into force in 2023.


We initiated an overweight in copper, given low inventory levels and structural headwinds to supply, yet increased demand from China reopening and long-term “green” demand.


We moved even further overweight the euro against the US dollar. We expect rate differentials are to support EUR/USD as the Fed is likely to pause hiking before the European Central Bank. Further, China’s reopening should support the Euro area’s economy.


We increased our underweight to the US dollar relative to the Japanese yen, given the Bank of Japan’s surprise yield curve control adjustment in November and our expectation of a complete abandonment later in 2023, which should support rate differentials in favour of the yen. China’s reopening should also be supportive. 

The index performance is provided for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  See Disclosure section for index definitions.

Tactical Positioning
We have provided our tactical views below:
Latest tactical views

Source: MSIM GBaR team. Previous view is as of 31 December 2022 and current view is as of 31 January 2023. For informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The tactical views expressed above are a broad reflection of our team’s views and implementations, expressed for client communication purposes. The information herein does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation or specific needs of any individual investor. The signals represent the GBaR team’s view on each asset class. A negative signal indicates a negative or underweight relative view, a positive signal indicates a positive or overweight relative view.

Chief Investment Officer
Portfolio Solutions Group


  • Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The value of the investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and an investor may not get back the amount invested.  There can be no assurance that the Fund will achieve its investment objectives.
  • Investments may be in a variety of currencies and therefore changes in rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to decrease or increase. Furthermore, the value of investments may be adversely affected by fluctuations in exchange rates between the investor’s reference currency and the base currency of the investments.
  • The Asset Allocation strategies provide the Investment Adviser with wide discretion to allocate between different asset classes. From time to time, the Asset Allocation may have significant exposure to a single or limited number of fixed income or equity asset classes. Accordingly, the relative relevance of the risks associated with equity securities, Fixed Income Securities and derivatives will fluctuate over time.
  • Funds that specialise in a particular region or market sector are more risky than those which hold a very broad spread of investments. Where portfolio concentration is in one sector it is subject to greater risk and volatility than other portfolios that are more diversified and the value of its shares may be more substantially affected by economic events in the real estate industry.
  • Investments in derivative instruments carry certain inherent risks such as the risk of counter party default and before investing you should ensure you fully understand these risks. Use of leverage may also magnify losses as well as gains to the extent that leverage is employed.
  • These investments are designed for investors who understand and are willing to accept these risks. Performance may be volatile, and an investor could lose all or a substantial portion of his or her investment.
  • The value of bonds are likely to decrease if interest rates rise and vice versa.
  • The value of financial derivative instruments are highly sensitive and may result in losses in excess of the amount invested by the Sub-Fund.
  • Issuers may not be able to repay their debts, if this happens the value of your investment will decrease. This risk is higher where the fund invests in a bond with a lower credit rating.
  • The fund relies on other parties to fulfil certain services, investments or transactions. If these parties become insolvent, it may expose the fund to financial loss.
  • There may be an insufficient number of buyers or sellers which may affect the funds ability to buy or sell securities.
  • There are increased risks of investing in emerging markets as political, legal and operational systems may be less developed than in developed markets.


The indexes shown in this report are not meant to depict the performance of any specific investment, and the indexes shown do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges, which would lower performance. The indexes shown are unmanaged and should not be considered an investment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

“Bloomberg®” and the Bloomberg Index/Indices used are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Bloomberg is not affiliated with MSIM, does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend any product, and. does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to any product.

Barbell approach: A strategy of investing on the two opposite ends of risk spectrum at the same time. For example investing in anticipation of a risk-on scenario, but also investing as a hedge, in anticipation of a risk-off scenario.

BTPs: Italian Government Bonds.

Earnings per share (EPS) is a company's net profit divided by the number of common shares it has outstanding.

Fed Funds Rate: The interest rate that banks charge other institutions for lending excess cash to them from their reserve balances on an overnight basis.


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This material is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offering of securities in Korea.  No representation is being made with respect to the eligibility of any recipients of this material under the laws of Korea, including but without limitation, the Foreign Exchange Transaction Law and Regulations thereunder.  The Fund/s mentioned herein this material may or may not have been registered with the Financial Services Commission of Korea under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act and may not be offered directly or indirectly, in Korea or to any resident of Korea except pursuant to applicable laws and regulations of Korea.

BRAZIL. This document does not constitute a public offering of securities for the purposes of the applicable Brazilian regulations and has therefore not been and will not be registered with the Brazilian Securities Commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários) or any other government authority in Brazil. All information contained herein is confidential and is for the exclusive use and review of the intended addressee of this document, and may not be passed on to any third party.

CHILE. Neither the Fund nor the interests in the Fund are registered in the Registry of Offshore Securities (el Registro de Valores Extranjeros) or subject to the supervision of the Commission for the Financial Market (la Comisión para el Mercado Financiero). This document and other offering materials relating to the offer of the interests in the Fund do not  constitute a public offer of, or an invitation to subscribe for or purchase, the Fund interests in the Republic of Chile, other than to individually identified purchasers pursuant to a private  offering within the meaning of Article 4 of the Chilean Securities Act (la Ley del Mercado de Valores) (an offer that is not “addressed to the public at large or to a certain sector or  specific group of the public”).

COLOMBIA. This document does not constitute an invitation to invest or a public offer in the Republic of Colombia and is not governed by Colombian law. The interests in the Fund have not been and will not be registered with the National Register of Securities and Issuers (el Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores) maintained by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Colombia (la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia) and will not be listed on the Colombian Stock Exchange (la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia). The interests in the Fund are being offered under circumstances which do not constitute a public offering of securities under applicable Colombian securities laws and regulations. The offer of the interests in the Fund is addressed to fewer than one hundred specifically identified investors. Accordingly, the interests in the Fund may not be marketed, offered, sold or negotiated in Colombia, except under circumstances which do not constitute a public offering of securities under applicable Colombian securities laws and regulations. This document is provided at the request of the addressee for information purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation. The interests in the Fund may not be promoted or marketed in Colombia or to Colombian residents unless such promotion and marketing is carried out in compliance with Decree 2555 of 2010 and other applicable rules and regulations related to the promotion of foreign financial and securities related products or services in Colombia.

Colombian eligible investors acknowledge that the interests in the Fund (i) are not financial products, (ii) are transferable only in accordance with the terms of the Fund's constitutional  documents and (iii) do not offer any principal protection.

Colombian eligible investors acknowledge Colombian laws and regulations (in particular, foreign exchange, securities and tax regulations) applicable to any transaction or investment  consummated in connection with an investment in the Fund, and represent that they are the sole liable party for full compliance with any such laws and regulations. In addition,  Colombian investors acknowledge and agree that the Fund will not have any responsibility, liability or obligation in connection with any consent, approval, filing, proceeding,  authorization or permission required by the investor or any actions taken or to be taken by the investor in connection with the offer, sale or delivery of the interests in the Fund under  Colombian law.

MEXICO. Any prospective purchaser of the interests in the Fund must be either an institutional investor (inversionista institucional) or a qualified investor (inversionista calificado) within the meaning of the Mexican Securities Market Law (Ley del Mercado de Valores) (the “Securities Market Law”) and other applicable Mexican laws in effect.

The interests in the Fund have not and will not be registered in the National Registry of Securities (Registro Nacional de Valores) maintained by the Mexican Banking and Securities Commission (Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores). The interests in the Fund may not be offered or sold in the United Mexican States by any means except in circumstances which constitute a private offering pursuant to Article 8 of the Securities Market Law and its regulations. No Mexican regulatory authority has approved or disapproved the interests in the Fund or passed on the solvency of the Fund. All applicable provisions of the Securities Market Law must be complied with in respect of any sale, offer or distribution of, or intermediation in respect of, the Fund interests in, from or otherwise involving Mexico, and any resale of the interests in the Fund within Mexican territory must be made in a manner that will constitute a private offering pursuant to Article 8 of the Securities Market Law and its regulations.

PERU. The interests in the Fund have not been and will not be registered in Peru under Decreto Legislativo 862: Ley de Fondos de Inversión y sus Sociedades Administradoras or under Decreto Legislativo 861: Ley del Mercado de Valores (the “Securities Market Law”), and are being offered to institutional investors only (as defined in article 8 of the Securities Market Law) pursuant to a private placement, according to article 5 of the Securities Market Law. The interests in the Fund have not been registered in the securities market public registry  (Registro Público del Mercado de Valores) maintained by, and the offering of the Fund interests in Peru is not subject to the supervision of, the Superintendencia del Mercado de  Valores. Any transfers of the Fund interests shall be subject to the limitations contained in the Securities Market Law and the regulations issued thereunder.

URUGUAY. The offering of the Interests qualifies as a private placement pursuant to section 2 of Uruguayan law 18,627. The Interests will not be offered or sold to the public (Individuals or Companies) in Uruguay, except in circumstances which do not constitute a public offering or distribution through a recognized Exchange under Uruguayan laws and regulations. Neither the Fund nor the Interests are or will be registered with la Superintendencia de Servicios Financieros del Banco Central del Uruguay. The Fund corresponds to an investment fund that is not an investment fund regulated by Uruguayan law 16,774 dated September 27, 1996, as amended.


EMEA: This marketing communication has been issued by MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited. MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited is incorporated in Ireland as a private company limited by shares with company registration number 616661 and has its registered address at The Observatory, 7-11 Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, D02 VC42,  Ireland. 

This document contains information relating to the sub-fund (“Fund”) of Morgan Stanley Investment Funds, a Luxembourg domiciled Société d’Investissement à Capital Variable.  Morgan Stanley Investment Funds (the “Company”) is registered in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg as an undertaking for collective investment pursuant to Part 1 of the Law of 17th December 2010, as amended. The Company is an Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (“UCITS”).

Applications for shares in the Fund should not be made without first consulting the current Prospectus, Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”), Annual Report and Semi-Annual Report (“Offering Documents”), or other documents available in your local jurisdiction which is available free of charge from the Registered Office: European Bank and Business Centre, 6B route de Trèves, L-2633 Senningerberg, R.C.S. Luxemburg B 29 192. In addition, all Italian investors should refer to the ‘Extended Application Form’, and all Hong Kong investors should refer to the ‘Additional Information for Hong Kong Investors’ section, outlined within the Prospectus. Copies of the Prospectus, KIID, the Articles of Incorporation and the annual  and semiannual reports, in German, and further information can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland. The representative in Switzerland is Carnegie Fund Services S.A., 11, rue du Général-Dufour, 1204 Geneva. The paying agent in Switzerland is Banque Cantonale de Genève, 17, quai de l’Ile, 1204 Geneva. The document has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy.

Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. The material contained herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual client circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

The use of leverage increases risks, such that a relatively small movement in the value of an investment may result in a disproportionately large movement, unfavourable as well as favourable, in the value of that investment and, in turn, the value of the Fund.

Investment in the Fund concerns the acquisition of units or shares in a fund, and not in a given underlying asset such as building or shares of a company, as these are only the underlying assets owned.

The views and opinions are those of the Investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all Investment teams at Morgan Stanley Investment Management or the views of the firm as a  whole, and may not be reflected in the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. This material has been prepared using sources of information generally believed to be reliable but no representation can be made as to its accuracy.

The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or ‘investment research’ and is classified as a ‘Marketing Communication’ in accordance with the applicable European or Swiss regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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This document may be translated into other languages. Where such a translation is made this English version remains definitive. If there are any discrepancies between the English version and any version of this document in another language, the English version shall prevail.


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