The 1% Move Report

Timely commentary on market performance whenever the S&P 500 changes more than 1% in a day.

 

 

 

 

 

Wealth Management — March 20, 2026

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Office (GIO). Data as of March 20, 2026.

What Happened in the Markets?

  • The S&P 500 fell -1.5% Friday to end the day at 6,506.48 having lost -5.0% thus far in 2026.
  • Two of 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Financials (0.2%) and Energy (0.0%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Real Estate (-3.1%) and Utilities (-4.1%) underperformed.
  • By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.38%; WTI Crude increased to $98.32 per barrel; and gold decreased to $4,504.81 per ounce.

Why Did This Move Happen?

  • US equities declined on Friday, with the S&P 500 breaking below its recent range to its lowest level since September, finishing the week 115 points below its 200-day moving average. Concerns of escalation in the Middle East continued to drive risk-off sentiment as investors weighed implications for inflation and growth from Gulf energy production disruptions.
  • Rates markets repriced sharply, as the prospect of prolonged inflationary pressures pushed investors to reassess the policy outlook. Markets increasingly priced in a more hawkish central bank response, with fed funds futures largely erasing expectations for 2026 easing and implying an approximately 30% probability of a 25-bp rate hike by October.
  • The rapid unwinding of rate expectations led to Treasuries selling off across the curve. Two-year US Treasury yields approached 3.90%, surpassing the upper end of the Fed’s target range for the first time since 2023. 10-year yields climbed to 4.38%, the highest since July.

S&P 500 vs. 50-, 100-, and 200-Day Moving Averages

Source: Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIO. Data as of March 20, 2026.

How Does the Move Relate to Our Tactical Positioning?

  • The GIC recommends preparing for a solid-but-slowing US backdrop, emphasizing US large-cap ‘quality’ across both growth and value, while erring on the side of asset class diversification. With megacap and large-cap leadership likely to persist and a policy/productivity backdrop that favors strong fundamentals, we prefer core fixed income in the "belly of the curve" over short duration. We continue to use real assets and hedge funds to help mitigate emerging risks. The GIC consistently re-assesses its outlook in light of incoming data points.
  • Please find more information on the GIC's tactical positioning on the next two pages and reach out to your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor to discuss portfolio strategies.

The Global Investment Committee's Tactical Asset Allocation Reasoning

Note: Opportunistic Fixed Income includes Inflation-Linked Securities, High Yield Fixed Income, International Fixed Income, and Emerging Market Fixed Income. The GIC asset allocation models’ benchmarks do not include exposure to Opportunistic Fixed Income. Real Assets includes Real Estate/REITs, Commodities, and Energy Infrastructure/MLPs. Hedged Strategies include Absolute Return Assets, Equity Hedge Assets, and Equity Return Assets. Source: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GlC as of Jan. 15, 2026.

Morgan Stanley & Co.’s Key Market Forecasts

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIO. Data as of March 20, 2026.

Market data provided by Bloomberg.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry.

NASDAQ Composite Index: A broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market.

S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks.

US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the 17US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.

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Disclosures

Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report may reference jurisdiction(s) or person(s) that are the subject of sanctions administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the United Kingdom, the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to jurisdictions, persons (individuals or entities), debt or equity instruments, or projects that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly incidental to general coverage of the relevant economic sector as germane to its overall financial outlook, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such jurisdictions, persons, instruments, or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions. 

The summary at the beginning of the report may have been generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI).

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is the trade name of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, a registered broker-dealer in the United States. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

The material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not an offer or recommendation to buy, hold or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, sector or other financial instrument, or to participate in any trading strategy. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of individual investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. This material is based on public information as of the specified date, and may be stale thereafter. We have no obligation to tell you when information herein may change. We and our third-party data providers make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of this material. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This material should not be viewed as advice or recommendations with respect to asset allocation or any particular investment. This information is not intended to, and should not, form a primary basis for any investment decisions that you may make. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is not acting as a fiduciary under either the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, as amended ("ERISA") or under section 4975 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 as amended ("Code") in providing this material except as otherwise provided in writing by Morgan Stanley and/or as described at www.morganstanley.com/disclosures/dol.

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, its affiliates and Morgan Stanley Financial Advisors do not provide legal or tax advice.  Each client should always consult his/her personal tax and/or legal advisor for information concerning his/her individual situation and to learn about any potential tax or other implications that may result from acting on a particular recommendation.

International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to U.S. investing. These risks include political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in countries with emerging markets, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economies. Investing in foreign emerging markets entails greater risks than those normally associated with domestic markets, such as political, currency, economic and market risks. Investing in currency involves additional special risks such as credit, interest rate fluctuations, derivative investment risk, and domestic and foreign inflation rates, which can be volatile and may be less liquid than other securities and more sensitive to the effect of varied economic conditions. The value of fixed income securities will fluctuate and, upon a sale, may be worth more or less than their original cost or maturity value. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, call risk, reinvestment risk, liquidity risk, and credit risk of the issuer. High yield bonds are subject to additional risks such as increased risk of default and greater volatility because of the lower credit quality of the issues. Interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax; however, some bonds may be subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Also, municipal bonds acquired in the secondary market at a discount may be subject to the market discount tax provisions, and therefore could give rise to taxable income.  Typically, state tax-exemption applies if securities are issued within one’s state of residence and, if applicable, local tax-exemption applies if securities are issued within one’s city of residence. The tax-exempt status of municipal securities may be changed by legislative process, which could affect their value and marketability. Ultrashort-term fixed income asset class is comprised of fixed income securities with high quality, very short maturities. They are therefore subject to the risks associated with debt securities such as credit and interest rate risk.

Duration, the most commonly used measure of bond risk, quantifies the effect of changes in interest rates on the price of a bond or bond portfolio. The longer the duration, the more sensitive the bond or portfolio would be to changes in interest rates.  Generally, if interest rates rise, bond prices fall and vice versa. Longer-term bonds carry a longer or higher duration than shorter-term bonds; as such, they would be affected by changing interest rates for a greater period of time if interest rates were to increase. Consequently, the price of a long-term bond would drop significantly as compared to the price of a short-term bond.

Equity securities may fluctuate in response to news on companies, industries, market conditions and general economic environment.

Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price fluctuations and illiquidity.

Stocks of medium-sized companies entail special risks, such as limited product lines, markets, and financial resources, and greater market volatility than securities of larger, more-established companies.

Value investing does not guarantee a profit or eliminate risk. Not all companies whose stocks are considered to be value stocks are able to turn their business around or successfully employ corrective strategies which would result in stock prices that do not rise as initially expected.

Growth investing does not guarantee a profit or eliminate risk. The stocks of these companies can have relatively high valuations. Because of these high valuations, an investment in a growth stock can be more risky than an investment in a company with more modest growth expectations. 

Companies paying dividends can reduce or cut payouts at any time.

Investing in commodities entails significant risks. Commodity prices may be affected by a variety of factors at any time, including but not limited to, (i) changes in supply and demand relationships, (ii) governmental programs and policies, (iii) national and international political and economic events, war and terrorist events, (iv) changes in interest and exchange rates, (v) trading activities in commodities and related contracts, (vi) pestilence, technological change and weather, and (vii) the price volatility of a commodity.

Physical precious metals are non-regulated products. Precious metals are speculative investments, which may experience short-term and long term price volatility. The value of precious metals investments may fluctuate and may appreciate or decline, depending on market conditions. If sold in a declining market, the price you receive may be less than your original investment. Unlike bonds and stocks, precious metals do not make interest or dividend payments. Therefore, precious metals may not be appropriate for investors who require current income. Precious metals are commodities that should be safely stored, which may impose additional costs on the investor. The Securities Investor Protection Corporation (“SIPC”) provides certain protection for customers’ cash and securities in the event of a brokerage firm’s bankruptcy, other financial difficulties, or if customers’ assets are missing. SIPC insurance does not apply to precious metals or other commodities.

Treasury Inflation Protection Securities’ (TIPS) coupon payments and underlying principal are automatically increased to compensate for inflation by tracking the consumer price index (CPI). While the real rate of return is guaranteed, TIPS tend to offer a low return. Because the return of TIPS is linked to inflation, TIPS may significantly underperform versus conventional U.S. Treasuries in times of low inflation.

Yields are subject to change with economic conditions. Yield is only one factor that should be considered when making an investment decision. 

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are limited partnerships or limited liability companies that are taxed as partnerships and whose interests (limited partnership units or limited liability company units) are traded on securities exchanges like shares of common stock. Currently, most MLPs operate in the energy, natural resources or real estate sectors. Investments in MLP interests are subject to the risks generally applicable to companies in the energy and natural resources sectors, including commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and exploration risk. MLPs carry interest rate risk and may underperform in a rising interest rate environment.

Alternative investments may be either traditional alternative investment vehicles, such as hedge funds, fund of hedge funds, private equity, private real estate and managed futures or, non-traditional products such as mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that also seek alternative-like exposure but have significant differences from traditional alternative investments. The risks of traditional alternative investments may include: can be highly illiquid, speculative and not appropriate for all investors, loss of all or a substantial portion of the investment due to leveraging, short-selling, or other speculative practices, volatility of returns, restrictions on transferring interests in a fund, potential lack of diversification and resulting higher risk due to concentration of trading authority when a single advisor is utilized, absence of information regarding valuations and pricing, complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting, less regulation and higher fees than open-end mutual funds, and risks associated with the operations, personnel and processes of the manager. Non-traditional alternative strategy products may employ various investment strategies and techniques for both hedging and more speculative purposes such as short-selling, leverage, derivatives and options, which can increase volatility and the risk of investment loss. These investments are subject to the risks normally associated with debt instruments and also carry substantial additional risks. Investors could lose all or a substantial amount of their investment. These investments typically have higher fees or expenses than traditional investments.

Managed futures investments are speculative, involve a high degree of risk, use significant leverage, have limited liquidity and/or may be generally illiquid, may incur substantial charges, may subject investors to conflicts of interest, and are usually appropriate only for the risk capital portion of an investor’s portfolio. Before investing in any partnership and in order to make an informed decision, investors should read the applicable prospectus and/or offering documents carefully for additional information, including charges, expenses, and risks. Managed futures investments are not intended to replace equities or fixed income securities but rather may act as a complement to these asset categories in a diversified portfolio.

Hedge funds may involve a high degree of risk, often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss, can be highly illiquid, are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information, are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds, often charge high fees which may offset any trading profits, and in many cases the underlying investments are not transparent and are known only to the investment manager.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is subject to limitations, and you should be aware that any output from an IA-supported tool or service made available by the Firm for your use is subject to such limitations, including but not limited to inaccuracy, incompleteness, or embedded bias.  You should always verify the results of any AI-generated output.

REITs investing risks are similar to those associated with direct investments in real estate: property value fluctuations, lack of liquidity, limited diversification and sensitivity to economic factors such as interest rate changes and market recessions.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies. Technology stocks may be especially volatile. Risks applicable to companies in the energy and natural resources sectors include commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and exploration risk. Health care sector stocks are subject to government regulation, as well as government approval of products and services, which can significantly impact price and availability, and which can also be significantly affected by rapid obsolescence and patent expirations.

Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) investments in a portfolio may experience performance that is lower or higher than a portfolio not employing such practices.  Portfolios with ESG restrictions and strategies as well as ESG investments may not be able to take advantage of the same opportunities or market trends as portfolios where ESG criteria is not applied. There are inconsistent ESG definitions and criteria within the industry, as well as multiple ESG ratings providers that provide ESG ratings of the same subject companies and/or securities that vary among the providers. Certain issuers of investments may have differing and inconsistent views concerning ESG criteria where the ESG claims made in offering documents or other literature may overstate ESG impact. ESG designations are as of the date of this material, and no assurance is provided that the underlying assets have maintained or will maintain and such designation or any stated ESG compliance. As a result, it is difficult to compare ESG investment products or to evaluate an ESG investment product in comparison to one that does not focus on ESG. Investors should also independently consider whether the ESG investment product meets their own ESG objectives or criteria. There is no assurance that an ESG investing strategy or techniques employed will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee or a dependable measure of future results.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is subject to limitations, and you should be aware that any output from an IA-supported tool or service made available by the Firm for your use is subject to such limitations, including but not limited to inaccuracy, incompleteness, or embedded bias.  You should always verify the results of any AI-generated output.

Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets. 

Rebalancing does not protect against a loss in declining financial markets. There may be a potential tax implication with a rebalancing strategy. Investors should consult with their tax advisor before implementing such a strategy.

Virtual Currency Products (Cryptocurrencies)
Buying, selling and using virtual currency products (cryptocurrencies) is highly speculative and may result in substantial losses in a short period of time. 

This material is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell, or an endorsement of, any security or other financial instrument including, without limitation, virtual currency products or to participate in any trading strategy related to them. Virtual currency and securities listed and/or over the counter derivatives or other financial instruments that derive their value from, have a price linkage to, have exposure to or result in a payment or distribution of virtual currency, are not currently available for custody, distribution, settlement, purchase or sale at or through Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC (“Morgan Stanley”). This is due to, among other factors, the potential high risk and volatility of virtual currency products and the fact that virtual currency remains an experimental concept that is not presently regulated or backed by any central bank worldwide and has no tangible intrinsic value.

This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, based on publicly available factual information. It does not provide individually tailored or general investment advice whatsoever. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Investors seeking to evaluate particular investments and strategies in virtual currency products must seek the advice of their independent advisors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives.

The indices are unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only and do not represent the performance of any specific investment. The indices are not subject to expenses or fees and are often comprised of securities and other investment instruments the liquidity of which is not restricted. A particular investment product may consist of securities significantly different than those in any index referred to herein. Comparing an investment to a particular index may be of limited use.

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