The 1% Move Report

Wealth Management — April 3, 2025

• The S&P 500 decreased 4.8% Thursday to end the day at 5,396.52, having lost 8.2% thus far in 2025.
• One of 11 S&P 500 sectors was higher on the day, as Consumer Staples (+0.7%) and Utilities (-0.6%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Information Technology (-6.9%) and Energy (-7.5%) underperformed.
• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.04%; WTI Crude decreased to $66.67 per barrel; and gold decreased to $3,108.66 per ounce.

• US equities plummeted Thursday after President Trump announced more-aggressive-than-expected blanket tariffs on imports and reciprocal duties on 60 countries. The measures, set to take starting April 5, would increase the US's effective tariff rate to 22% from 3% at the beginning of the year. The VIX Index surged over 30% on the day, rising above 28, as global risk-off sentiment, stagflation fears, and heightened policy uncertainty roiled markets.
• The US Dollar fell by the most in two decades, while US Treasuries rallied, briefly pushing the 10-year yield below 4.0% for the first time since October, as investors sought safety. Market-implied expectations priced in 80 bp of cuts by year-end, up from 65 bp as of last week, as growth concerns immediately outweighed inflationary concerns.
• March ISM Services PMI dropped to 50.8, a nine-month low and below consensus expectations, as the Employment subcomponent declined into contraction territory for the first time in six months, declining 7.7 points to 46.2, the biggest decline in nearly five years.

• The GIC recommends preparing for sideways-churning markets, neutralizing portfolio tilts versus benchmarks, and erring on the side of asset class diversification. With megacap and large-cap stocks likely continuing to trump small caps, stay neutral duration in rates and corporate credit, and use real assets and hedge funds to help mitigate emerging risks. The GIC consistently re-assesses its outlook in light of incoming data points.
• Please find more information on the GIC's tactical positioning on the next two pages and reach out to your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor to discuss portfolio strategies.

US: The recent correction in both the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index provides some relief to overstretched valuations, while the Federal Reserve's policy pause and the DeepSeek events have cooled the GenAI fever breaking the bull case. The uncertainty shock to confidence around Trump 2.0's rapid-fire policy agenda is leading to cuts in GDP that could translate through to negative earnings revisions. But a soft landing is still the base case as long as the labor market holds. We are buying equal-weighted indexes, large-cap value and mid-cap growth names.

International Equities (Developed Markets): Recent outperformance has been catalyzed as responses to the “America First” agenda have driven fiscal stimulus and worries about the impact of tariffs is cooling rest-of-world inflation. We view weak currencies as a potential positive for US dollar investors and are likely to upgrade once tariff policy is solidified in Q2.

Emerging Markets: China stimulus, while potentially insufficient to address the challenges of the country's secular bear market, is likely enough to help stabilize the downturn in the short term. The US-China trade conflict under President Trump remains a wildcard, and we expect the “bazooka” of China stimulus is being kept waiting in order to see the US’ first move on tariffs. Given that valuations in the region are already nondemanding, we are inclined to be patient and wait for recovery.

US Investment Grade: Stronger-than-anticipated economic growth is preserving the strength of corporate cash flows. While interest rates have backed up to reflect “higher-for-longer” expectations, yield spreads have remained well behaved. With geopolitical uncertainty high and equity valuations broadly rich, we like coupons of bonds with index-matching durations.

International Investment Grade: Yields are decent, central banks have begun to cut rates and there is room for spread tightening as economic growth improves.

Inflation-Protected Securities: Real yields have sold off and are now bordering on cheap relative to the past two years. The securities could be a potential buy in a stagflationary environment.

High Yield: We have eliminated our exposure to the equity-like asset class to reduce equity beta of portfolios. High yield bonds rallied aggressively after the unprecedented provision of liquidity from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from Washington. However, we believe there is currently limited upside. Ultra-tight spreads may be the result of increasing competition for capital with private credit financial sponsors and general partners and may not fully reflect adequate compensation for default risk.

RREITS: We expect higher stock-bond correlations, which places a premium on the diversification benefits of investing in real assets. Nevertheless, with real interest rates positive and services inflation remaining quite sticky, we would need to be selective in adding to this asset class broadly. We are focused on interesting opportunities aimed at solving the residential housing shortage.

Commodities: Global reflation, tense geopolitics, especially in the Middle East, and ongoing fiscal spending suggest decent upside potential for precious metals and industrial commodities, including energy-related.

MLP/Energy Infrastructure: We previously increased exposure to real assets, with a preference for energy infrastructure and MLPs. Competitive yields and expectations for continued capital discipline amid stable oil and gas prices underpin our decision, as does hedging against geopolitical risks.

Hedged Strategies (Hedge Funds and Managed Futures): We recently added to equity hedged positions noting the pickup in idiosyncratic risk, falling borrowing costs and rising volatility. The current environment appears constructive for hedge fund managers, who are frequently good stock pickers and can use leverage and risk management to potentially amplify returns. We prefer very active and fundamental strategies, especially high quality, low beta, low volatility and absolute return hedge funds.

Market data provided by Bloomberg.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry.

NASDAQ Composite Index: A broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market.

S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks.

US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the 17US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.