Wealth Management — August 23, 2024
What Happened in the Markets?
- The S&P 500 increased 1.1% Friday to end the day at 5,634.61, having gained 18.1% thus far in 2024.
- All of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as Real Estate (+2.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.7%) were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors, while Utilities (+0.3%) and Consumer Staples (+0.2%) underperformed.
- By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased 6bp to 3.80%; WTI crude oil increased to $74.89 per barrel; and gold increased 1.1% to $2,511.27 per ounce.
Why Did This Move Happen?
- The S&P 500 Index rallied on Friday after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole conference helped solidify market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting.
- The Fed Chair's remarks that “the time has come for policy to adjust” appeared to reassure investors that the Fed will not wait too long to begin rate cuts in the face of a cooling labor market. Uncertainty around the timing of rate cuts had provided an overhang during Thursday's session, as investors fretted that the market's pricing of 100 bp of cuts by year end may have exceeded the Fed's own outlook.
- With the Fed Chair reaffirming his confidence that inflation remains on a sustainably lower path, the Fed will likely focus on incoming labor market data ahead of the next FOMC meeting. In housing, new home sales rose significantly to 739,000 vs. 623,000, exceeding consensus expectations in July and reaching the highest level since May 2023, as buyers took advantage of modestly lower mortgage rates and greater sales incentives.
S&P 500 vs. 50-, 100-, and 200-Day Moving Averages
How Does the Move Relate to Our Tactical Positioning?
- The GIC recommends preparing for sideways-churning markets, neutralizing portfolio tilts versus benchmarks, and erring on the side of asset class diversification. With megacap and large-cap stocks likely continuing to trump small caps, add international exposure, stay neutral-to-underweight duration in rates and corporate credit, and use real assets and hedge funds to help mitigate emerging risks. Today's move does not meaningfully impact the GIC’s outlook.
- Please find more information on the GIC's tactical positioning on the next two pages and reach out to your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor to discuss portfolio strategies.
Equities
US: We recently closed our US large-cap equity underweight, which was premised on concerns about achievability of 2023 earnings estimates. While higher inflation should delay Fed rate cuts, more pricing power contributes to confidence that has risen, given GDP strength and visible international growth rebounds. Our preference is for cyclical and secular-growth equities with quality balance sheets.
International Equities (Developed Markets): Given weak currencies and dovish central banks in Japan and Europe, economic rebound should be at hand in the second half. Developed market exposure should skew toward commodities and materials exporters, especially those in the Asia Pacific region, including Japan.
Emerging Markets: Peaking US rates and, in turn, the US dollar, likely set up a second half rebound for EM ex China, given improving global growth dynamics. We favor Brazil, India and Mexico.
The Global Investment Committee's Tactical Asset Allocation Reasoning
Fixed Income
US Investment Grade: Stronger-than-anticipated economic growth is preserving the strength of corporate cash flows. While rates have backed up to reflect "higher-for-longer" expectations, yield spreads have remained well behaved. With geopolitical uncertainty high and equity valuations broadly rich, we like coupons of bonds with index-matching or shorter durations.
International Investment Grade: Yields are decent, central banks may soon cut rates and there is room for spread tightening as economic growth improves.
Inflation-Protected Securities: Real yields have sold off and are now bordering on cheap relative to the past two years. The securities could be a potential buy in a stagflationary environment.
High Yield: We have eliminated our exposure to the equity-like asset class to reduce equity beta of portfolios. High yield bonds rallied aggressively after the unprecedented provision of liquidity from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from Washington. However, currently, there appears to be limited upside and much downside to investments in riskier products, given the market environment.
Alternatives
REITS: We expect higher stock-bond correlations, which place a premium on the diversification benefits of investing in real assets. Nevertheless, with real interest rates positive and services inflation remaining quite sticky, we would need to be selective in adding to this asset class.
Commodities: Global reflation, tense geopolitics, especially in the Middle East, and ongoing fiscal spending suggest decent upside potential for precious metals and industrial-related commodities, including energy.
MLP/Energy Infrastructure: We are increasing exposure to real assets, with a preference for energy infrastructure and MLPs. Competitive yields and expectations for continued capital discipline amid stable oil and gas prices over the next six months underpin our decision, as does hedging against geopolitical risks.
Hedged Strategies (Hedge Funds and Managed Futures): The current environment appears constructive for hedge fund managers, who are frequently good stock pickers and can use leverage and risk management to potentially amplify returns. We prefer very active and fundamental strategies, especially high-quality, low beta, low volatility and absolute return hedge funds.
Morgan Stanley & Co.’s Key Market Forecasts
Market data provided by Bloomberg.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry.
NASDAQ Composite Index: A broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market.
S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the 17US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
