The 1% Move Report

Wealth Management — May 26, 2023

• The S&P 500 Index rose 1.3% Friday to end the week at 4,205.45, having gained 9.5% thus far in 2023. 
• Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher on the day, as IT (+2.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.4%), and Communication Services (+1.7%) outperformed the S&P 500 Index. Real Estate (+1.2%), Industrials (+0.8%), Financials (+0.7%), Materials (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Utilities (-0.1%), Health Care (-0.2%) and Energy (-0.4%) underperformed. 
• By the 4:00 p.m. equity market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield decreased 2 bp to 3.8%; WTI crude oil prices increased 1.3% to $72.77 per barrel; and gold increased 0.3% to 1,947.16. 
• US equities moved higher today on reports that negotiators are moving closer to a last-minute agreement on the debt ceiling that would prevent the US from default.
• The extended rally in AI-related equities boosted the Technology sector and major indices, as investors’ positive outlook for the space continued to gain traction.
• April’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) came in at 4.7% vs. a year ago, higher than the expectation of 4.6%.
• Personal spending and core capital goods orders also came in above expectations for April. 

• 1Q23 Earnings - Analysts' expectations for the S&P 500 Index's 1Q23 share-weighted earnings growth show a deterioration of 3.1% year-over-year (y/y) on 4.4% y/y revenue growth. This includes estimates for earnings declines in six sectors, and revenue declines in three sectors. The most significant declines in earnings were expected in the Materials (-25.0% y/y), Utilities (-20.8% y/y), Health Care (-16.5% y/y), Information Technology (-9.5% y/y), and Communication Services (-10.3% y/y) sectors, according to Bloomberg. With nearly 98% of the S&P 500's market cap reported thus far, 78% announced earnings ahead of analysts' expectations. In aggregate, for the companies that reported 1Q23, sales and earnings are higher than analysts' expectations by 2.6% and 6.4%, respectively, with the largest earnings surprises in the Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Industrials sectors. During company 1Q23 earnings calls, investors are closely monitoring forward guidance for pricing and volumes as well as for vulnerability of margins and earnings due to the current economic uncertainty, elevated inflation, volatile rate environment, tightening financial conditions, and slowing growth. While consumer spending has been resilient, management teams continue to balance pricing power and cost reductions to support margins. Nonetheless, we believe rising rates and slowing growth will lead to further deterioration in revenues, margins, and earnings.

With the Fed responding to 40-year highs in inflation through both rate hikes and balance sheet run-off in 2022, the GIC’s call for continued caution remains intact. The GIC has been concerned for the better part of a year that US indexes are increasingly priced for perfection, with equity risk premiums much too slim given plentiful risks. With global portfolios materially overweight US stocks as well, related risks are amplified, and vulnerability to a momentum reversal is profound. Stepping back from the complexities of assessing the tactical horizon, long-term investors are well served reconciling portfolios to these extremes and seeking opportunities for diversification. Consider active management, which is increasingly necessary to contend with the concentration risk of passive indexes. We see opportunities for long-term investors in small-cap, value and cyclical stocks, while tactical rebalancing would favor emerging markets over the next six to 12 months. Consider focusing cash on income opportunities in both stocks and bonds.

For US equities, the MS & Co. US Equity Strategy team sees the potential for further equity downside in the early part of 2023, given their base-case expectations of $195 for 2023E earnings, well below current consensus levels. Their 2023E S&P 500 base case provides a target of 3,900, based on 2024E earnings of $241. This scenario assumes that nominal top-line growth slows to the low single digits and that margins contract. Their 2023E bear case of 3,500 considers a severe earnings recession, margin pressure and a contraction of EPS growth. Their 2023E bull case of 4,200 corresponds to a mid-single-digit top-line growth rate and limited margin compression. This bull case forecast embeds an estimate of 16.7x MS & Co.'s forward 2024E earnings of $251. 

Market data provided by Bloomberg.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): A price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry.

NASDAQ Composite Index: A broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market.

S&P 500 Index: The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 widely held, large-capitalization US stocks.

US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the 17US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.