'China Opts for Quantity Over Quality,' Says Asia Chairman
August 12, 2009

By Stephen Roach |

"China's recent growth spurt comes at a steep price" writes Asia Chairman Stephen Roach in his latest think-piece 'China Opts for Quantity over Quality.'

While noting that on the surface, China appears to be leading the world from recession to recovery, Roach pointed to the fact that "Chinese policymakers have opted for quantity over quality in setting macro strategy, the centerpiece of which is an enormous surge in infrastructure spending funded by a burst of bank lending."

Roach warns that this lending could "sow the seeds of a new wave of nonperforming loans" and that such an outcome is not a sustainable outcome for neither China nor the global economy.

China must redirect economic growth toward internal private consumption, explains Roach, allowing that while it may require a "compromise on the quantity dimension of its growth outcome... without such a sacrifice, China is ignoring the most critical lessons of the post-crisis era."

The Asia Chairman notes, "Unlike most, I have been a steadfast optimist on the Chinese economy. Yet I am starting to worry. A macro strategy that exacerbates already worrisome imbalances is ultimately a recipe for failure."