Global Economic Forum Team
Dedicated to being the preeminent provider of economic research to the global financial community.

The Global Economic Forum is designed to provide a daily update on the ongoing dialogue among our far-flung team. We hope you find it helpful as a vehicle that takes you into the inner sanctum of the rapidly changing global financial markets. As always, we welcome your feedback.


Vincent Reinhart joined Morgan Stanley in October 2011 as a Managing Director and Chief US Economist. In that capacity, Mr. Reinhart is responsible for the firm's analysis of the US economy.  For the four years prior to joining Morgan Stanley, Mr. Reinhart was a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a nonpartisan think tank located in Washington, DC.  He previously spent more than two decades working in the Federal Reserve System, where he held a number of senior positions in the Divisions of Monetary Affairs and International Finance.  For the last six years of his Fed career, he served as Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs and secretary and economist of the Federal Open Market Committee. In that capacity, he was the senior staff member providing advice to Fed officials on the appropriate choice and communication of monetary policy.  In his research at the Fed and AEI, Mr. Reinhart worked on topics as varied as the conduct and communication of monetary policy, auctions of US Treasury securities, the long-lived consequences of financial crises, and the patterns of international capital flows. At AEI, he frequently commented in the media on the economic outlook and macroeconomic and financial policies.

Ellen Zentner is an Executive Director of Morgan Stanley and the Senior Economist for the U.S., based in New York. She provides in-depth analysis and research on U.S. macroeconomic rends and works with the U.S. economics team to monitor and provide forecasts for the U.S. economy. She is also responsible for providing timely updates on market moving indicators to Morgan Stanley's sales and trading desks as well as clients.

Ellen joined Morgan Stanley in August 2013 from Nomura Securities, International. Previously, she served as Senior U.S. Macro Economist for eight years at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, LTD., and Senior Economist at the Texas State Comptroller for five years.

Ellen holds a Bachelor of Business Administration and Master's Degree in Economics from the University of Colorado.

Europe (London-based)

Elga is Morgan Stanley's Chief European Economist. The main focus of her research is the euro area, especially the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Elga is also a member of the ECB Shadow Council. In addition, she still covers some core European countries, primarily Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, and the Nordic economies. Elga was recently voted one of the hundred most influential women in European finance. In addition to her European role, Elga spearheads a global research effort on the economics of climate change. She joined Morgan Stanley in September 1997 from the Kiel Institute of World Economics, a large German economic think-tank. At the Kiel Institute, Elga worked as a research associate in the President's Office between 1992 and 1997 and, amongst other things, responsible for managing The Advanced Studies in International Economic Policy Research, a post-graduate programme in international macroeconomics. Having studied at the University of Hannover and the London School of Economics, Elga received a degree in Economics from Kiel University where she graduated top of her class. Subsequently, she completed a Ph.D. in Economics at the Kiel Institute. Her dissertation deals with Liability for Environmental Damages: Incentives for Precaution and Risk Allocation. 

Tevfik Aksoy is a Managing Director and the Head of Central Eastern Europe, M. East and Africa Economics at Morgan Stanley. He is also responsible for the macroeconomic coverage of Turkey and Israel. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 2008, Tevfik held a similar position at Deutsche Bank, where he worked since 2004. In this role he also covered a number of Eastern European and African countries such as Turkey, Croatia, Lebanon and Nigeria. Prior to his role at Deutsche Bank, Tevfik held a number of positions in the financial services, public sector and academia in the UK, US and Turkey. He has 24 years of professional experience, of which 19 years have been in banking. His previous experience includes positions ranging from being a production planning engineer at Turkey's ASELSAN (a leading military electronics manufacturing firm), an analyst at The Public Participation Administration of Turkey, a government body, and a Visiting Assistant Professor at the University of Delaware, USA. Tevfik is a graduate of the University of Delaware, where he received his Ph.D. in Applied Econometrics and Labour Economics and an MA degree in economics. Tevfik also holds an MBA degree and a bachelor of science in Mechanical Engineering from the Middle East Technical University, in Ankara, Turkey.

Melanie Baker is senior UK economist.  She has been on the UK economics team since 2003.  Before this, she worked on the currency economics team.  She joined Morgan Stanley in 1999.  She graduated in 1998 from the University of Edinburgh with an MA in Economics and Politics and has an MSc from University College London in Economics.  She is also a CFA charterholder.  Melanie is a member of TheCityUK's Independent Economists Group.

Joachim Fels is Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist, based in London. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 to cover the German economy, became Co-Head of European Economics and the Firm's first ECB watcher, and also built up the Currency Economics Team. Joachim then served as Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Fixed Income Economist, Head of European Fixed Income Research, and more recently as Chief International Economist. 

Before joining Morgan Stanley, Joachim was an International Economist at Goldman Sachs from 1992-96 and a Research Associate at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy from 1987-92. He studied Economics at Kiel University, Saarbruecken University and the Bologna Center of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The easiest way to follow Joachim's thoughts on global macro issue is to subscribe to his weekly email Sunday Start.  

Daniele Antonucci is a Managing Director of Morgan Stanley and the senior European economist chiefly responsible for Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece). Based in London, he also contributes to the formulation and communication of the eurozone economic and policy outlook, with an emphasis on fiscal matters along with their investment implications, to equity and fixed-income investors globally. Daniele conducts thematic research on current market debates ranging from the aftermath of the euro crisis and debt sustainability in the EU periphery, to economic rebalancing and reform within the eurozone, and good vs. bad deflation. 

Before joining the Firm in 2009, he was an economist at Merrill Lynch in London. Daniele also worked in the credit risk field at Moody's KMV in San Francisco and started his career in the research department of Confindustria, Italy's main business association, in Rome. He holds a master's degree in economics from Duke University, where he was awarded a full scholarship for advanced study, and graduated with highest distinction from the University of Rome La Sapienza, having also been educated at the European Institute of Higher Education in Brussels. His research has been featured in peer-reviewed economics journals, trade publications and the media. 

Pasquale Diana is an Executive Director who is responsible for coverage of the Central and Eastern European economies (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia). Based in London, he is a regular contributor to the CEEMEA Macro Monitor, the team's flagship publication. His primary focus is the CEE business cycle and the implications for monetary policy, but he also conducts thematic research on issues such as external debt, fiscal policy, balance of payments dynamics, economic convergence, and has presented his views at several conferences in the CEE region. 

Pasquale joined Morgan Stanley in November 2006. Previously, he worked for 6 years at JP Morgan, where he covered the economies of Italy, Spain and Scandinavia for several years before joining the CEEMEA Economics Team to focus on Emerging Europe and Israel.  He holds a BSc and an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics.

Manoj Pradhan is a senior economist in the Global Economics Team. He leads the economics team's effort to conduct thematic research of EM and DM economies. He has been a member of the Global Economics team based in London since September 2005, and is the regular contributor for notes in the Global Macro Analyst and Emerging Issues publications. 

Manoj is on the advisory board of Queen Mary's College's Department of Economics and Finance. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley, he served on the faculty of the economics department at the State University of New York (Stony Brook) and the George Washington University in Washington, DC from 1998 to 2004. Manoj has a PhD in Macroeconomics from the George Washington University and a Masters in Finance from the London Business School. He specializes in monetary policy, quantitative macroeconomics and macro-finance. 

 Inside GEF
Global Economic Team
Japan Economic Forum
 GEF Archive