Dedicated to being the preeminent provider of economic research to the global financial community.
The Global Economic Forum is designed to provide a daily update on the ongoing dialogue among our far-flung team. We hope you find it helpful as a vehicle that takes you into the inner sanctum of the rapidly changing global financial markets. As always, we welcome your feedback.
Joachim Fels is Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Economics, based in London. He is also a member of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney's Global Investment Committee. Joachim's research focuses on monetary policy, the global liquidity cycle, and inflation. He is responsible for The Global Monetary Analyst, a flagship weekly Morgan Stanley Research publication.
Joachim joined Morgan Stanley in 1996 to cover the German economy. Later he co-headed the Currency Economics Team and the European Economics Team, which won several #1 rankings in the Institutional Investor Poll over the years. Joachim was also the Firm's ECB watcher from the institution's birth in 1998 until 2005. Before joining Morgan Stanley, Joachim was educated in economics in Germany and Italy, and worked at Goldman Sachs and at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Elga Bartsch is Morgan Stanley's Chief European Economist. The main focus of her research is the euro area, especially the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Elga is also a member of the ECB Shadow Council. In addition, she still covers some core European countries, primarily Germany, the Netherlands and Austria. Elga is also responsible for the Firm’s Swedish forecasts. In addition to her European role, Elga spearheads a global research effort on the economics of climate change. She joined Morgan Stanley in September 1997 from the Kiel Institute of World Economics, a large German economic think-tank. At the Kiel Institute, Elga worked as a research associate in the President's Office between 1992 and 1997 and, amongst other things, responsible for managing The Advanced Studies in International Economic Policy Research, a post-graduate programme in international macroeconomics. Having studied at the University of Hannover and the London School of Economics, Elga received a degree in Economics from Kiel University where she graduated top of her class. Subsequently, she completed a Ph.D. in Economics at the Kiel Institute. Her dissertation deals with Liability for Environmental Damages: Incentives for Precaution and Risk Allocation. Elga is fluent in German and English.
Daniele Antonucci joined Morgan Stanley in 2009 as the senior economist responsible for southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal) based in London. He also contributes to the formulation and communication of the euro area economic and interest rate outlook - with an emphasis on debt sustainability and fiscal policy - to equity and fixed-income investors globally. Daniele conducts thematic research on topics ranging from the propagation of the euro crisis within the periphery of the region and beyond to the interconnectedness between sovereigns and banks, and the journey towards deeper European integration, along with their financial market implications. Previously, he was an economist at Merrill Lynch in London. Daniele also worked in the credit risk field at Moody's KMV in San Francisco and started his career in the research department of Confindustria, Italy's main business association, in Rome. He holds degrees in economics from Duke University, where he was awarded the Alexandre Valerio Sandru Scholarship, and the University of Rome La Sapienza, and was also educated at EHSAL - European Institute of Higher Education in Brussels. Daniele's research has been featured in peer-reviewed economics journals, trade publications, and the media - including the non-specialised press - as well as academic conferences.
Tevfik Aksoy (PhD) is a Managing Director and the Head of Central Eastern Europe, M. East and Africa Economics at Morgan Stanley. He is also responsible from the macroeconomic coverage of Turkey and Israel. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 2008, Tevfik held a similar position at Deutsche Bank, where he worked since 2004. In this role he also covered a number of East European and African countries. Prior to his role at Deutsche Bank, Tevfik held a number of positions in the financial services, public sector and academia in the UK, US and Turkey. He has 22 years of professional experience, of which 17 years had been in banking. He is a graduate of the University of Delaware, where he received his Ph.D. and MA degrees in economics. He also holds an MBA and a bachelor of science in Mechanical Engineering from the Middle East Technical University (Turkey).
Melanie Baker is UK economist at Morgan Stanley. Previously working with David Miles, she has been on the UK economics team since 2003. Before this, she worked on the currency economics team. She joined Morgan Stanley in 1999. She graduated in 1998 from the University of Edinburgh with an MA in Economics and Politics and has an MSc from University College London in Economics. She is also a CFA charterholder and active member of the company's womens' network, currently organizing the network's mentoring scheme.
Pasquale Diana is an Executive Director who covers the Central European economies (Czech, Hungary, Poland), as well as Romania and Bulgaria. Pasquale joined Morgan Stanley in November 2006. Previously, he worked for 6 years at JP Morgan, where he covered the economies of Italy, Spain and Scandinavia before joining the CEEMEA Economics Team. He holds a BSc and an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Vincent Reinhart joined Morgan Stanley in October 2011 as a Managing Director and Chief US Economist. Mr. Reinhart is responsible for the firm's analysis of the US economy, leading a team that includes US Fixed Income Economist and Managing Director David Greenlaw.
For the four years prior to joining Morgan Stanley, Mr. Reinhart was a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a nonpartisan think tank located in Washington, DC. He previously spent more than two decades working in the Federal Reserve System, where he held a number of senior positions in the Divisions of Monetary Affairs and International Finance. For the last six years of his Fed career, he served as secretary and economist of the Federal Open Market Committee. In that capacity, he was the senior staff member providing advice to Fed officials on the appropriate choice and communication of monetary policy. In his research at the Fed and AEI, Mr. Reinhart worked on topics as varied as economic bubbles and the conduct of monetary policy, auctions of US Treasury securities, alternative strategies for monetary policy, the long-lived consequences of financial crises, and the patterns of international capital flows. At AEI, he frequently commented in the media on the economic outlook and macroeconomic and financial policies.
David Greenlaw is a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Fixed Income Economist. His primary duties involve analysis of the U.S. economy and credit markets, including Federal Reserve and Treasury activity. He is also responsible for the projections of key economic indicators. Before joining Morgan Stanley in 1986, David was an economist with the Policy Economics Group, a Washington, D.C., consulting firm. Prior to that he served on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C., for four years.
David holds an M.B.A. from New York University and a B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. He has also done extensive graduate work at the University of Chicago and George Washington University.
Gray Newman is a Managing Director and senior Latin America Economist who is in charge of all Latin American macro-economic research. He joined Morgan Stanley in August 2000. Before joining the firm, Gray was Senior Latin America Economist at Merrill Lynch. Previously, he was Chief Economist for Latin America for the Hong Kong Shanghai Bank (HSBC) in New York. Gray also worked in HSBC's Mexico City office for HSBC James Capel. Prior to his work at HSBC, he was Senior Economist for Interacciones Casa de Bolsa, a Mexico City-based brokerage house.
Gray holds degrees in law and economics from the University of Virginia and the College of William and Mary.
Ted Wieseman is a Vice President and an economist focusing on US fixed income markets. Ted works with Chief US Fixed Income Economist David Greenlaw on Federal Reserve and US Treasury analysis and economic data forecasting and analysis, supporting the firm's Treasury, agency, and derivatives sales, and trading operations. Before joining Morgan Stanley in 1998, Ted worked for three years at Citibank, primarily focusing on foreign exchange economics.
Ted holds an M.A. in economics from New York University and a B.A. in economics with a minor in mathematics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He also did graduate work in economics at Yale University.
Asia-Ex Japan (Hong Kong, Singapore, Bombay-based)
Helen Qiao is a Managing Director who joined the Firm in 2011 as Chief Economist for Greater China, based in Hong Kong. She began her career as a China economist at Goldman Sachs in 2005. Previously, she worked at the World Bank Group (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development) in Washington DC and Lehman Brothers in Tokyo. Helen has written a wide range of thematic research papers on China. Her work has been published in media and in academic journals, such as The Journal of Policy Modeling. She holds a BA degree in international trade from the Renmin University of China, and Master's degree and a PhD in economics from Stanford University.
Chetan Ahya is a managing director and the Asia Pacific economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan joined the Firm in mid-2000 from BNP Paribas, where he was the India economist and strategist. Chetan has a Bachelor's degree in commerce & economics from the University of Mumbai, a Post-Graduate Diploma in economics, and a Master's degree in public policy and management. He holds the Associate Chartered Accountant and Associate Cost and Works Accountant degrees. Chetan and his team ranked first for Asia Pacific economics in the 2010 Institutional Investor survey. Chetan ranked as one of the top two economists for India in the Asiamoney poll each year from 2001 to 2010. He has published research on a broad range of topics, with emphasis on growth dynamics in India, China, and the Asean region. He has also written extensively on the emergence of China and India and the influence of the two economies on the region and global competitive dynamics.
He and his team ranked #1 for Asia Pacific economics in the 2010 Institutional Investor survey. Chetan himself ranked as one of the top two economists for India in the Asiamoney poll each year for 2001-2010. Chetan's published research has covered a broad range of topics, with emphasis on growth dynamics in India, China, and the Asean region. He has written extensively on the emergence of China and India and the influence of the two economies on the region and global competitive dynamics.
Denise Yam is a Vice President and member of Morgan Stanley's economics team, covering Greater China. She joined Morgan Stanley in 1998.
Denise holds an M.Phil. in economics from the University of Cambridge and a B.Sc. in economics from the University of Bristol. Denise holds a CFA designation.
Robert Feldman is a Managing Director who joined Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd. in February 1998 as the chief economist for Japan. In 2003, he also became Co-Director of Japan Research. He continues to focus on the outlook for the Japanese economy and on interest rate movements. Robert has published three books, Japanese Financial Markets: Deficits, Dilemmas, and Deregulation (MIT Press, 1986), Nihon no Suijaku ("The Weakening of Japan", Toyo Keizai 1996, in Japanese) and Nihon no Saiki ("Starting Over", Toyo Keizai 2001, in Japanese). A fluent speaker of Japanese, he has also translated four books from Japanese to English, including Economic Growth in Prewar Japan (by Takafusa Nakamura, Yale U. Press). In addition, he is a regular commentator on World Business Satellite, TV Tokyo's nightly business program. Robert was the chief economist for Japan at Salomon Brothers from 1990 to 1997. He worked for the International Monetary Fund from 1983 through 1989, in the Asian, European, and Research Departments.
Robert holds a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and B.A.s in economics and in Japanese studies from Yale. Between college and graduate school, he worked at both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at Chase Manhattan Bank. Robert first came to Japan as an exchange student and also studied at the Nomura Research Institute and the Bank of Japan.
Takeshi Yamaguchi is a Vice President and economist covering Japan with chief economist Robert Feldman. Takeshi joined Morgan Stanley in September 2006 as a member of the Japan economics team. Before joining the firm, he was an economist at the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) in the sovereign risk analysis department. Takeshi holds a B.A. in economics from the University of Tokyo and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.