Top Economic Reports
December 05, 2013
By The Global Economics Team
US Economics: As
Economy Lathers Up, Fed Prepares to Shave its Beard: There has been a
notable pickup in household demand post-government shutdown. We believe that
positive momentum in final demand as we enter the New Year, coupled with
incoming data suggesting a 3-handle for Q1 growth, is just the backdrop Janet
Yellen and the FOMC will need to begin tapering confidently in March. Vincent
Rethinking Central Bank Action: Due to downside risks to near-term growth
and inflation dynamics underpinned by incoming data, we have changed our ECB
and Riksbank calls: Contrary to our previous call for an extended period of
unchanged interest rates both in the euro area and in Sweden, we now
expect both central banks to cut interest rates again. Elga Bartsch
Sunday Start: What
Next in the Global Economy (NOVEMBER 24, 2013): In Chinese philosophy, yin
and yang are seemingly contrary or opposite forces that are deeply intertwined:
they complement and give rise to each other. At our recent 12th Annual Asia
Pacific Summit in Singapore,
I used the yin-yang concept to describe the forces currently at work in our
interconnected global economy and markets, and it struck a chord with the
audience. Let me lay it out here too – please tell me if it works for you. Joachim Fels
Asia Pacific Economics: External Demand
Improving; Domestic Demand in Soft Patch: This publication contains all the
key indicators for tracking economic growth conditions in the Asia/Pacific
region. We hope it will provide a one-stop shop for assessing current economic
growth developments. Chetan K Ahya
China Economics: Asia
Insight: Quantifying the Impact of One-child Policy Change: Demographic shift
calls for policy change: As part of its reform agenda, the 3rd Plenum of
18th CPC relaxed the one-child policy adopted more than three decades ago,
allowing families with either parent being a single child to have a second
child. We believe this revision comes against the background that China’s
demographic dividend is gradually turning into a deficit, adding headwinds to
underlying growth momentum. China has experienced falling growth in its labor
force since the 1980s – but we think that this time, it matters more to the
economy, as it coincides with lower contributions from TFP and capital stock on
growth. Yuande Zhu
Singapore Economics: 3Q13 GDP Beats Expectations: What’s new?: 3Q13 GDP came in at +5.8% YoY (vs an upwardly revised +4.4% YoY in 2Q13). This was higher than consensus andour expectation of +5.3% YoY and +5.4% YoY, respectively, as well as the 3Q13 GDP advance estimate released earlier in October of +5.1% YoY. On a sequential seasonally adjusted annualised basis, the economy expanded by 1.3% QoQ saar (vs +17.4% QoQ saar in 2Q13).
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