Global
Top Economic Reports
September 04, 2013

By Global Economic Team|

Germany Economics: Merkel to Score a Hat-trick? Another cliff-hanger election in Germany: Despite a very close race, it looks likely that Angela Merkel will be able to win a third mandate as Chancellor on September 22. It is less clear though whether she can continue in a centre-right coalition with the FDP or whether she might be forced into a Grand Coalition with the SPD. Investors should brace themselves for an election cliff-hanger. Elga Bartsch

US Economics: Fed Focus: Wandering Through the Mountains: With no keynote speaker at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, there was no opportunity for Fed officials to send signals about their policy intent. Vincent Reinhart

Asia Pacific Economics: Rise in Real Rates - Why It Feels Like the 1990s. Speedier rise in US real rates and dollar pushing Asia to lift its real rates: We have for some time been highlighting the challenges that the rise in US real rates and the appreciation of the US dollar will pose for Asia. However, the pace at which US real rates have risen and the appreciation of the US dollar. Chetan K Ahya

Japan Economics: J-Insight: Abenomics More Likely to Succeed With Mild Pace of C-Tax Hikes. Bottom line: Future consumption tax hikes are a necessary part of fiscal consolidation, but the downside risks are large if a 3%pt hike goes ahead in April 2014 as planned. A shift to a more gradual pace of consumption tax hikes would increase the likelihood of success for Abenomics, in our view. Takeshi Yamaguchi.

Poland Economics: Green Shoots Are No Head Fake. The recent data have shown that the Polish economy has turned the corner: While the external environment remains challenging, the high-frequency data in Poland all suggest that the economy accelerated into the summer. Industrial output had a strong start to 3Q, the labour market is healing, credit standards are loosening and there are some positive signs in capital spending too. While external risks should not be dismissed, Poland has thus far remained markedly resilient to a challenging external funding backdrop. We think that the NBP's tone is set to gradually become more hawkish in the coming months, and continue to see a strong case for rate hikes next year (75bp, starting in 2Q). Pasquale M Diana