Global
Top Economic Reports
August 20, 2013

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UK Economics and Strategy: BoE Inflation Report: Guidance - Dovish with Risks: Impact on our views: The MPC delivered a stronger form of guidance than we were expecting: threshold guidance. Given that the threshold is a 7% rate for unemployment and that their median forecast is 7.3% in 3Q16, the message is dovish. Our own forecast has the unemployment rate materially greater than 7% at end-2014. Melanie Baker.

  

China Economics: Import Rebound Suggests A Modest Improvement In Domestic Demand Likely: July trade data surprised on the upside: Export growth rose to +5.1% YoY from -3.1% YoY in June, in line with our forecast of +5.0% YoY, but higher than consensus expectations of +2.0% YoY. Import growth rebounded strongly to +10.9% YoY from -0.7% YoY in June, beating consensus expectations of +1.0% YoY and our forecast of no growth. Stronger-than-expected import growth indicates domestic demand growth has likely improved modestly. The strong rebound in July's import growth offered more evidence of growth strengthening, in addition to the notable jump in input price sub-index in July PMI. It might be too early to judge, but we certainly cannot rule out the possibility that the government's growth stabilizing efforts have helped along with some temporary raw material restocking. Helen H Qiao.

  

China Economics Data Release: Notable Growth Rebound Helped by Countercyclical Policy Measures: Activity indicators showed encouraging signs of a notable growth rebound. Together with the PMI improvement, import growth acceleration and milder PPI deflation, these data showed a consistent picture of stronger growth momentum in domestic demand. We believe the government's growth-stabilizing policy measures introduced in late June have helped boost investment growth and heavy industry production activities. Helen H Qiao.

  

US Economics Business Conditions: No Rain in Forecast for Second Half Parade: The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index surged 13 points to 82% in August, high since January 2011. Underlying momentum has been strong as we start to move past the peak of fiscal drag, and falling policy uncertainty has supported greater confidence in the economic outlook, reflected in a very positive tone to comments from our analysts about the outlook for business conditions in their industries. Vincent Reinhart.