Global
Top Econonomic Reports 
August 14, 2013

By Global Economics Team|

Greater China Economics: Issues in Focus China: The recent Politburo meeting vowed to expand demand proactively to ensure the annual economic and social development tasks will be fulfilled this year. This is seen as a strong signal from the top leadership vowing to meet the growth target of 7.5% in 2013. We think the overall message from the Politburo meeting is positive because it suggests top leaders reached a consensus that policy adjustments are needed to help stabilize growth. However, it also shows the government is only willing to introduce sector-specific supporting schemes instead of adopting a high-profile stimulus package, unless there is any notable deterioration in social indicators (i.e., unemployment). Helen Qiao

  

US Economics Fed Focus: To Catch a Break: The consequence of Friday's neither hot-nor-cold employment report is that the Fed really will be data dependent in its decision on tapering at its September meeting.
- If the August jobs report is weaker than the print on Friday, then it would be difficult to justify dialing back policy accommodation.
- A report around these July payroll gains or stronger, the Fed can assert that there has been enough sustained improvement to justify scaling back the pace of its purchases. Vincent Reinhart

  

India Economics: Longer Duration Slowdown Risks Vicious Loop: 1) Recent pro-cyclical monetary tightening is increasing downside risks to growth outlook 2) Longer duration of weak growth increases risk of vicious cycle developing 3) Accelerated pace of policy reforms will be key. Chetan Ahya

  

China Economics Better-than-expected: PMI indicates stabilizing manufacturing activity China official PMI strengthened in July and beat market expectations. The NBS-released PMI managed to stay above the break-even mark in July and rose to 50.3 (MS: 49.6; consensus: 49.8) from 50.1 in June. After our re-adjustment for seasonality, the headline PMI ticked up to 51.0 SA from 50.7 SA in June. Some caution in interpreting this result is warranted, as we believe the NBS has changed their SA methodology recently, possibly introduce a bias to our estimates.  Helen Qiao