Top Economic Reports
April 30, 2013
By Global Economic Team|
Economics and Strategy: Deciphering Draghi: What's new: Like many investors, we are still somewhat bemused by the noticeable shift in tone at the last ECB press conference. In this note, we benchmark the shift against the language ahead of past ECB rate cuts and discuss possible economic, financial and political motivations for the shift. On balance, we conclude that our previous outside scenario of an ECB refi rate cut in one of the next two meetings has now become our base case, and we now expect a 25bp rate cut by June. Elga Bartsch
China Economics: Too early to turn pessimistic: Our latest policy trip to Beijing showed a mixed picture of the macro backdrop. Good news: 1Q growth data was likely understated due to some temporary shocks (e.g. late Lunar New Year and the leap year) and biased by statistical sampling changes. In addition, our investigation seems to suggest that the adverse impact of the recent banking regulation and property policy tightening measures on liquidity and real estate investment will likely remain limited. Helen Qiao
India Economics - Macro Indicators Chartbook: Macro Stability Indicators Beginning to Improve: This monthly publication presents all the key macro indicators for the Indian economy, which we believe will provide a comprehensive macro health check. This chartbook summarizes the trends in key indicators for growth, external sectors, inflation, monetary conditions, and public finance. Chetan K Ahya
Asia/Pacific Economics: Growth Entering A Soft Patch: This monthly publication contains all the key indicators for tracking economic growth conditions in the Asia/Pacific region. We hope this publication will provide a one-stop shop for investors to assess current economic growth developments. Within this publication, we provide data on industrial production and all the items within the GDP by expenditure approach, namely, consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. Chetan Ahya
Italy and the Political Cliff (Part V): Paying the Bills:
• With the nomination of Enrico Letta as Italy's new prime minister, prospects of overcoming the political stalemate are rising. This is a positive development, in our view, and might perhaps mark the beginning of a less volatile period in Italian politics.
• But whether it paves the way toward paying the many ‘policy arrears' that are long overdue remains to be seen. While certain institutional reforms seem likely to some degree, there's still considerable uncertainty on whether there's enough support for broader reforms, given parliamentary fragmentation.
• In the near term, the good news is that other types of arrears - i.e., those accumulated by the public administration toward its suppliers - will be paid. The effect on GDP growth is subject to considerable uncertainty, but at the very least this plan could give respite to the corporate sector. Daniele Antonucci
European Eco Weekly: Falling Business Sentiment: Euro Area: Apart from the Italian political situation, the main focus this week will be on some key survey data, after ECB President Mario Draghi, at the April meeting of the Governing Council, and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, in an interview last week, signalled that the ECB will monitor very closely all incoming data and may adjust its interest rates accordingly. Tomasz Pietrzak.
Brazil, Venezuela & Mexico: Doves, Tips and Twists - Week Ahead in Latin America:
Brazil: A Dovish Hike: When is an interest rate hike dovish? When the authorities move by less than the market is expecting and seem hesitant to even commit to a hike. Confused? There is one thing that we feel comfortable claiming: the magnitude of the coming hikes is unlikely to be sufficient to tackle Brazil's inflation challenge. Arthur Carvalho
Venezuela: Towards A Tipping Point?. Venezuela has a new president, but it has the same old problems as macro conditions worsen and the arrival of a Tipping Point appears to be approaching. Daniel Volberg
Mexico: Inflation Twists and Turns. While Mexico's core measures remain low, headline inflation has been on a rollercoaster ride. A new weighting set to be announced this week should help to reduce some of the gap between headline and core down the road. Luis Arcentales
Important Disclosure Information at the end of this Forum
Disclosure Statement
The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and/or Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A. and their affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley").
Global Research Conflict Management Policy
Morgan Stanley Research observes our conflict management policy, available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies.
Important Disclosure for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC Customers
The subject matter in this Morgan Stanley report may also be covered in a similar report from Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Ask your Financial Advisor or use Research Center to view any reports in addition to this report.
Important Disclosures
Morgan Stanley Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the circumstances and objectives of those who receive it. Morgan Stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages them to seek a financial adviser's advice. The appropriateness of an investment or strategy will depend on an investor's circumstances and objectives. Morgan Stanley Research is not an offer to buy or sell any security or to participate in any trading strategy. The value of and income from your investments may vary because of changes in interest rates or foreign exchange rates, securities prices or market indexes, operational or financial conditions of companies or other factors. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized.
With the exception of information regarding Morgan Stanley, research prepared by Morgan Stanley Research personnel is based on public information. Morgan Stanley makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in Morgan Stanley Research change apart from when we intend to discontinue research coverage of a company. Facts and views in Morgan Stanley Research have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other Morgan Stanley business areas, including investment banking personnel.
To our readers in Taiwan: Morgan Stanley Research is distributed by Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited; it may not be distributed to or quoted or used by the public media without the express written consent of Morgan Stanley. To our readers in Hong Kong: Information is distributed in Hong Kong by and on behalf of, and is attributable to, Morgan Stanley Asia Limited as part of its regulated activities in Hong Kong; if you have any queries concerning it, contact our Hong Kong sales representatives.
Morgan Stanley Research is disseminated in Japan by Morgan Stanley Japan Securities Co., Ltd.; in Canada by Morgan Stanley Canada Limited, which has approved of and takes responsibility for its contents in Canada; in Germany by Morgan Stanley Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main, regulated by Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin);in Spain by Morgan Stanley, S.V., S.A., a Morgan Stanley group company, supervised by the Spanish Securities Markets Commission(CNMV), which states that it is written and distributed in accordance with rules of conduct for financial research under Spanish regulations; in the US by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, authorized and regulated by Financial Services Authority, disseminates in the UK research it has prepared, and approves solely for purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, research prepared by any affiliates. Private UK investors should obtain the advice of their Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc representative about the investments concerned. RMB Morgan Stanley (Proprietary) Limited is a member of the JSE Limited and regulated by the Financial Services Board in South Africa. RMB Morgan Stanley (Proprietary) Limited is a joint venture owned equally by Morgan Stanley International Holdings Inc. and RMB Investment Advisory (Proprietary) Limited, which is wholly owned by FirstRand Limited.
Trademarks and service marks in Morgan Stanley Research are their owners' property. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of their data and shall not have liability for any damages relating to such data. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P. Morgan Stanley bases projections, opinions, forecasts and trading strategies regarding the MSCI Country Index Series solely on public information. MSCI has not reviewed, approved or endorsed these projections, opinions, forecasts and trading strategies. Morgan Stanley has no influence on or control over MSCI's index compilation decisions. Morgan Stanley Research or portions of it may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley research is disseminated and available primarily electronically, and, in some cases, in printed form. Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.
The information in Morgan Stanley Research is being communicated by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (the DFSA), and is directed at wholesale customers only, as defined by the DFSA. This research will only be made available to a wholesale customer who we are satisfied meets the regulatory criteria to be a client.
The information in Morgan Stanley Research is being communicated by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (QFC Branch), regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (the QFCRA), and is directed at business customers and market counterparties only and is not intended for Retail Customers as defined by the QFCRA.
As required by the Capital Markets Board of Turkey, investment information, comments and recommendations stated here, are not within the scope of investment advisory activity. Investment advisory service is provided in accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory concluded between brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and clients. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely to this information stated here may not bring about outcomes that fit your expectations.
|
![](/img/clear.gif"){kind=spacer}