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Global
Top Economic Reports March 25, 2013 By Global Economic Team| US Economics: Fed Focus: Past Returns Sometimes Predict Future Performance: A quick review of the Fed's history reveals we are not traversing unprecedented terrain. The Fed's balance sheet has reached these heights twice in the past and once with specific instructions from Treasury to keep a lid on yields of government securities. Vincent Reinhart. Investor Survey: Italy: Thinking Like a Local: The findings of our recent survey on Italy indicate that many investors believe new elections are the most likely and most bearish outcome. Respondents perceive the OMT bond-buying programme as a credible backstop. Daniele Antonucci Brazil & Mexico: Seizing the Moment- Week Ahead in Latin America Weekly Spotlight. Mexico and Brazil have plenty of differences, but our forecasts for 2013 and beyond also have many similarities. In both cases we are near the bottom of the consensus in terms of growth, and yet in both cases we argue that the business cycle is the least important aspect of 2013. Instead, we are watching carefully to see whether policy makers seize the moment to address important structural shortcomings. We are hopeful in one case and confident in the other. Gray Newman Sunday Start What Next in the Global Economy: I like it when investors push back on my views, and they often do. It helps me understand where we differ, it makes me eager to corroborate the argument, and it induces me to reconsider the view if the pushback is compelling. Interestingly, I have received less pushback than usual on our Spring Global Macro Outlook published this past week, from the large number of readers who have read the report so far, from the more than 1,000 participants who dialed into our joint conference call with Vincent Reinhart, Elga Bartsch, Helen Qiao and Robert Feldman, from the many people who have watched our joint Global Strategy Forum video, or from the clients I've seen in one-on-one and group meetings in London in the past couple of days. I guess less pushback than usual means that most people agree with our key thesis and forecasts, and that this is a view that's largely priced into markets. This in itself is useful information. Joachim Fels German Economics: Where Has the Wirtschaftswunder Gone? Germany is sometimes viewed as the land of economic miracles or Wirtschaftswunder. While Germany should recover earlier and stronger than other parts of the euro area, we have several concerns about long-run growth. Elga Bartsch Asia/Pacific Economics: External Demand Recovery on Track; Domestic Demand Hesitant This monthly publication contains all the key indicators for tracking economic growth conditions in the Asia/Pacific region. We hope this publication will provide a one-stop shop for investors to assess current economic growth developments. Within this publication, we provide data on industrial production and all the items within the GDP by expenditure approach, namely, consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. Chetan Ahya European Eco Weekly: Watching the Business Cycle and Politics: Euro Area: This week is likely to be dominated by data releases rather than policy announcements. There will only be an extraordinary eurogroup meeting on Cyprus, as politicians are trying to finalize the terms of the bailout programme. However, we do not expect any final decisions to be announced at this meeting (March 15th). In the absence of major policy announcements, the market is likely to focus on political developments in Italy, as parliament resumed. On the data front, business sentiment in the euro area is expected to improve somewhat in March. We anticipate the flash eurozone manufacturing PMI to rise marginally to 48.0. We will also get survey data out of Germany, where we expect the ZEW economic sentiment to post a small decline and the Ifo business climate to remain stable. Business sentiment indicators are expected to rise in France and Belgium. Tomasz Pietrzak |
