Global
Top Economic Reports
March 18, 2013

By Global Economic Team|

US Economics: An Inflection Point Ahead: In the Morgan Stanley forecast for the US, the trajectory of economic activity marks an inflection point midway through 2013. Economic activity is currently held down by fiscal consolidation. However, the expansion of real GDP steps up to around 2-3/4 percent in the second half of this year and beyond. Vincent Reinhart.

 

Sunday Start: What Next in the Global Economy (MARCH 10, 2013). The sun has just risen above the snow-covered ridge that I can see from the desk in my hotel room, and the mountain is calling. But before I go, it's time to reflect on another interesting week where global stocks reached fresh multi-year highs and the Dow even climbed to a new all-time peak. Joachim W Fels.

  

European Economics: Cutting GDP Forecasts due to Concerns on Italy & France Cutting our forecasts, hopefully for the last time: A deterioration in the outlook for the larger countries, notably Italy and France, and a weaker than expected 4Q, cause us to cut our euro area forecast again. Moving further below the consensus, we now see GDP contracting by 0.7% this year. Elga Bartsch.

  

ECB Watch: Hinting at Holding Operations: As expected, the ECB left interest rates unchanged. But it slightly cut its staff projections for growth, bringing them very close to our forecasts. At the same time, the ECB left its projections for inflation broadly unchanged. The risks assessment of the Governing Council is also very similar to the one in February (see table on the next page). The only really noteworthy change was that the Council no longer views an appreciation of the EUR as a potential downside risk to price stability. Elga Bartsch.

  

Turkey Economics:  Current Account: The Best Is Behind Us: First derivative is zero: The January current account deficit at US$5.6 billion was higher than consensus (US$5.4 billion) and lower than our forecast of US$6.2 billion. The key point regarding the data was that the improvement in the cumulative (12m rolling) deficit has come to a halt, and we think that the deficit has reached its lowest point in January. Starting with February data, we think that the deficit will begin a gradual ascent. We are not expecting a significant deterioration, but we think that the best is behind us. Tevfik Aksoy.