1999 Nikkei Survey — 11th Annual Research Analyst Poll

Nikkei Financial Daily, a leading financial newspaper in Japan, publishes an annual poll on Japanese research teams. In this year’s poll, published in April 1999, Morgan Stanley had the following results.

  

Nikkei Financial Daily, a leading financial newspaper in Japan, publishes an annual poll on Japanese research teams. In this year’s poll, published in April 1999, Morgan Stanley had the following results:

  1. Morgan Stanley Has Best Showing to Date; Ranked Number Two in Japan
    Based on ranking by company, Morgan Stanley Japan (Morgan Stanley) recorded its best performance yet, jumping up to the number two position from its number three spot last year. Morgan Stanley has progressed steadily through the ranks to be rated the best foreign research house in Japan, rising from seventh position in 1996, fifth place in 1997, and third place in 1998. It is a tremendous honor to have been evaluated so highly by investors and to be recognized for the first time as the best foreign research house in Japan.

  2. Morgan Stanley Enjoys a 39% Increase in Overall Points Awarded
    Morgan Stanley scored a total of 5,607 points overall, up a significant 39% over the 4,022 points it secured in 1998. Morgan Stanley enjoyed the most dramatic surge in results among the top sector firms.

  3. Morgan Stanley Analysts Score an Average 295 Points — the Industry Best
Morgan Stanley's 19 analysts (number as of the time the poll was conducted) recorded an average 295 points (a 24% leap from 237 in 1998) — an industry high for the year that brought the Firm up overall from its third place last year to the number-one spot on this basis in 1999. The average points awarded per analyst are considered to be a driving force behind securing the overall company ranking, and a focus on this number is a valid measure of overall efficiency.

By industry, chemical sector analyst Toshihiko Ginbayashi and steel/non-ferrous metals analyst Toru Nagai both kept their respective number one positions, and a large number of Morgan Stanley analysts were ranked within the top five analysts in their sectors. In 1998, three Morgan Stanley analysts — Toshihiko Ginbayashi, Toru Nagai, and electronics analyst Takatoshi Yamamoto — secured some 60% of Morgan Stanley's total points, a figure that dropped to 39% in 1999, but overall it was a performance that coincides with Morgan Stanley's strategy of aiming for a strong department-wide rating.

Among the impressive results, some noticeable performances include that of Construction analyst Atsushi Takagi, who jumped from fifth place (169 points) in 1998 to second place in 1999 (454 points); Brokers, Insurance & Other Finance analyst Hideyasu Ban, who saw his ranking raised from sixth place in 1998 (46 points) to third place in 1999 (334 points); Hironori Tanaka was ranked third in the new Broadcasting/Leisure category with 143 points, and saw his position in the Telecommunications sector elevated from ninth place in 1998 (35 points) to fifth place (161 points) in 1999; and Auto/Auto Parts analyst Noriaki Hirakata leapt from twelfth position in 1998 (27 points) to sixth position (130 points) in 1999.

Complete analyst results are outlined below.

Ranking of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Japan Analysts by Sector 1996-99 (Nikkei Survey)
  Points Rankings
Name Nikkei Sectors 1999 1998 1997 1999 1998 1997 1996
Nagai, Toru Steel & Nonferrous Metals 645 567 269    1    1    3    8
Ginbayashi, Toshihiko Chemicals (1) 591 670 477    1    1    1    2
Yamamoto, Takatoshi Overall 522 654 482    2    1    1    1
Takagi, Atsushi Construction 454 169 (152)    2    5    (3)    -
Ohara, Yukiko Banks 449 (577) (255)    2    (1)    (3)    (6)
Yamamoto, Takatoshi Consumer Electronics (2) 440 435 378    2    2    2    2
Yamamoto, Takatoshi Industrial Electronics (3) 417 546 495    2    2    2    1
Morita, Mitsuko Computer Software 287 304 240    2    2    3    4
Ban, Hideyasu Brokers, Non-life Insurance & Other Financials 334   46    -    3    6    -    -
Otsuki, Keiko Housing, Real Estate 279 (188) (179)    3    (5)    (4)    5
Tanaka, Hironori Broadcasting, Leisure, Other Services (4) 143    -    -    3    -    -    -
Takahashi, Fumiyuki Quantitative 105 175   66    3    2    4    -
Soejima, Tomokazu Transportation / Warehouse (5) 197   20   28    4   12    9    3
Mochizuki, Masayuki Machinery 172 233 188    4    5    3    6
Soejima, Tomokazu Trading Companies 160 148    9    4    3   10    4
Mochizuki, Masayuki Shipbuilding, Plant Engineering   97   62    -    4    7    -    -
Kinmont, Alexander Strategy 187 263 143    5    2    5    6
Mita, Mayo Pharmaceuticals 168 109   91    5    6    6    -
Tanaka, Hironori Telecommunications 161   35   (85)    5    9    (6)    (4)
Shimizu, Michinori Retail (6) 146 184 120    6    6    5    5
Hirakata, Noriaki Autos & Auto Parts 130   27   15    6   12   16    -
Ohara, Yukiko Overall 112 (174)   (48)    7    (6)   (20)    -
Feldman, Robert Economics 120 103 (130)    8    6    (6)    (4)
Yamamoto, Takatoshi Electronic Components, Devices (7)   87 190   30    8    2   11    6
Demura, Taizo Food   63    -    -    8    -    -    -
Nagai, Toru Overall   91   67    -    9   16    -    -
Otsuki, Keiko Construction   38 (222) (141)   11    (3)    (5)    6
Oki, Noriko Electronic Components, Devices (7)   52   55 150   12   11    4   10
Ginbayashi, Toshihiko Overall   69   96   49   13    9   19    -
Volkmann, Stephen Autos & Auto Parts    -   50   11    -    7   19    -
Daniels, Elizabeth Brokers, Non-life Insurance & Other Financials    -   38   30    -    7   11    -
Morita, Mitsuko Services (8)    -   24    -    -   11    -    -
Camp, Jeffrey Telecommunications    -    7   22    -   13   10    9
Daniels, Elizabeth Banks    -   33   39    -   11   10    -
Morgan Stanley Ranking      2    3    5    7
Morgan Stanley Points (Industry Setors*)   5,607 4,022 2,652 1,788
1999: 19 ranked analysts in 20 industries, strategy, quantitative, economics; 4 ranked analysts in Overall category.
1998: 19 ranked analysts in 18 industries, strategy, quantitative, economics; 3 ranked analysts in Overall category.

*excludes strategy, quantitative, economics, technical, overall category.
( ) Points and ranks at former affiliation.
1. Chemicals/Textile/Paper/Pulp in 1996.
2. Consumer Electronics & Components in 1997.
3. Electronics/Semiconductor in 1997.
4. New Category from 1999.
5. Utilities and Transportation in one category in 1998.
6. Retail & Services 1996-97.
7. Precision & Other Mfg. in 1997; Components excluded.
8. New category in 1998. Combined with Broadcasting, Leisure, Others in 1999.


Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted by sending questionnaires to 914 equity portfolio managers (723 domestic and 191 overseas). The response rate for domestic participants was 69.8% (equal to 505 people, of which 94 were non-Japanese), while the response rate for overseas was 14.7% (28 people). This made the overall response rate 58.3%. By analyst, a combined total was calculated based on three points being awarded for a number one ranking, two points for a number two position, and one point for number three. In the case of the most popular industry analyst overall category, five points were awarded for being ranked first, four for second, three for third, two for fourth, and one for fifth place.