The 2000 Nikkei Survey: 12th Annual Analyst Poll
Morgan Stanley ranks second overall for two years running and maintains top spot among foreign firms.
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The 12th Annual Nikkei Analyst Poll was released on April 24, 2000. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter ranked second for the second year in a row. Morgan Stanley was ranked first among foreign firms, also for the second consecutive year. Morgan Stanley has shown consistent upward momentum, ranking seventh in 1996, rising to fifth in 1997, third in 1998, and second both last year and this year. Morgan Stanley's overall score for 2000 was up 75% year-over-year to 9,793.
Within individual sectors, Morgan Stanley chemical sector analyst Toshihiko Ginbayashi ranked first (1,090 points) for the fourth consecutive year, and steel analyst Toru Nagai ranked first (955 points) for the third year in a row. Construction analyst Atsushi Takagi ranked first (922 points) moving up from second in 1999. For the 25 sectors surveyed, Morgan Stanley had three top-ranked analysts, and fully 13 Morgan Stanley analysts covering 16 sectors ranked within the top five in their particular area.
2000 Nikkei Survey: 12th Annual Research Analyst Poll; Results by Company, April 24, 2000
| | Rank | | Points | | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | Firm | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 |
| | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Nomura Securities (1) | 11,861 | 7,429 | 8,171 | 8,824 | 9,112 | | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | Morgan Stanley Dean Witter | 9,793 | 5,607 | 4,022 | 2,652 | 1,788 | | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8 | Nikko Salomon Smith Barney (2) | 9,612 | 4,947 | 3,247 | 2,685 | 1,628 | | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | Merrill Lynch | 9,227 | 4,582 | 4,245 | 4,420 | 2,540 | | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | Goldman Sachs | 7,489 | 3,204 | 3,683 | 2,959 | 2,565 | | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 19 | Warburg Dillon Read (4) | 5,902 | 2,651 | 675 | 179 | 229 | | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | Daiwa Research Institute | 4,311 | 2,987 | 2,737 | 2,595 | 2,787 | | 8 | 10 | 17 | 17 | 21 | Deutsche Securities (5) | 3,981 | 1,529 | 397 | 365 | 130 | | 9 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 11 | Dresdner Kleinwort Benson (3) | 3,917 | 2,907 | 1,513 | 499 | 922 | | 10 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 18 | Jardine Fleming | 3,906 | 1,800 | 1,131 | 416 | 416 | | 11 | 16 | - | - | - | Commerz Securities | 1,993 | 624 | - | - | - | | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 13 | HSBC Securities (6) | 1,604 | 970 | 737 | 540 | 593 | | 13 | 12 | 16 | - | - | ABN Amro | 1,388 | 997 | 410 | - | - | | 14 | 13 | 15 | 19 | 20 | Kokusai Securities | 1,250 | 972 | 469 | 278 | 210 | | 15 | - | - | - | - | IBJ Securities | 1,203 | - | - | - | - | | 16 | 15 | 18 | 24 | 24 | ING Baring Securities | 1,070 | 825 | 386 | 158 | 72 | | 17 | - | - | - | - | CSFB | 843 | - | - | - | - | | 18 | - | - | - | - | Tokyo-Mitsubishi Securities | 807 | - | - | - | - | | 19 | - | - | - | - | Societe Generale Securities | 702 | - | - | - | - | | 20 | - | - | - | - | Wit Capital | 642 | | | | |
| | 81,501 | |
(1) '96-'97 Nomura Securities Institute
(2) '96-'98 Salomon Brothers Asia
(3) '96 Kleinwort Benson
(4) '98 SBC Warburg
(5) '96 Deutsche Bank Securities
(6) '96 James Capel
Mergered companies are not listed above.
Ranking of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Japan Analysts by Sector 19972000 (Nikkei Survey)
| | | Points | Rank | | Name | Nikkei Sectors | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| | Ginbayashi, Toshihiko | Chemicals | 1,090 | 591 | 670 | 477 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Yamamoto, Takatoshi | Overall | 1,075 | 522 | 654 | 482 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Nagai, Toru | Steel, Nonferrous Metals | 955 | 645 | 567 | 269 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | | Takagi, Atsushi | Construction | 922 | 454 | 169 | 152 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | | Yamamoto, Takatoshi | Industrial Electronics(1) | 744 | 417 | 546 | 495 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | Yamamoto, Takatoshi | Consumer Electronics(2) | 700 | 440 | 435 | 378 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | | Murata, Tomohiro | Electronic Components, Devices(3) | 562 | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | | Morita, Mitsuko | Computer Software | 545 | 287 | 304 | 240 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | | Takahashi, Fumiyuki | Quantitative | 287 | 105 | 175 | 66 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | | Ban, Hideyasu | Brokers, Non-life Insurance & Other Financials | 493 | 334 | 46 | - | 3 | 3 | 6 | - | | Kawahara, Minoru | Shipbuilding, Plant Engineering | 395 | 275 | 296 | 223 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | | Tanaka, Hironori | Broadcasting, Leisure, Other Services(4) | 373 | 143 | - | - | 3 | 3 | - | - | | Otsuki, Keiko | Housing, Real Estate | 449 | 279 | 188 | 179 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | | Gupta, Lalita | Utility(5) | 180 | 99 | 46 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | | Tanaka, Hironori | Telecom-
munications | 349 | 161 | 35 | 85 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 6 | | Mita, Mayo | Pharmaceuticals, Health Care | 274 | 168 | 109 | 91 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | | Soejima, Tomokazu | Transportation, Warehouse(5) | 253 | 197 | 20 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 9 | | Soejima, Tomokazu | Trading Companies | 236 | 160 | 148 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 10 | | Feldman, Robert | Economics | 211 | 120 | 103 | 130 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | | Hirakata, Noriaki | Autos, Auto Parts | 219 | 130 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 16 | | Shimizu, Michinori | Retail (Department Stores/
Convenient Stores)(6) | 179 | 146 | 184 | 120 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | | Demura, Taizo | Food | 157 | 63 | - | - | 7 | 8 | - | - | | Kinmont, Alexander | Strategy | 233 | 187 | 263 | 143 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 5 | | Morita, Mitsuko | IT, Internet(7) | 72 | - | - | - | 11 | - | - | - | | Ginbayashi, Toshihiko | Overall | 178 | 69 | 96 | 49 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 19 | | Nagai, Toru | Overall | 145 | 91 | 67 | - | 14 | 9 | 16 | - | | Kawahara, Minoru | Machinery, Precision Instruments(8) | 88 | 39 | - | - | 14 | 12 | - | - | | Otsuki, Keiko | Construction | 21 | 38 | 222 | 141 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 5 | | Shimizu, Michinori | Retail (Specialty, Apparel)(6) | 33 | - | - | - | 16 | - | - | - | | Demura, Taizo | Retail (Department Stores/
Convenient Stores) | 23 | 146 | 184 | 120 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 5 | | Hosokawa, Mizue | Brokers, Non-life Insurance & Other Financials | 17 | - | - | - | 16 | - | - | - | | Oki, Noriko | Machinery, Precision Instruments | 70 | 52 | 55 | 150 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 4 | | Abe, Hiromi | IT, Internet | 32 | - | - | - | 17 | - | - | - | | Demura, Taizo | Retail (Specialty, Apparel) | 30 | - | - | - | 17 | - | - | - | | Oki, Noriko | Electronic Components, Devices | 28 | - | - | - | 17 | - | - | - | | Murata, Tomohiro | Industrial Electronics | 13 | - | - | - | 17 | - | - | - | | Redl, Christopher | Autos, Auto Parts | 25 | - | - | - | 18 | - | - | - | | Yamamoto, Takatoshi | Electronic Components, Devices | 22 | 87 | 190 | 30 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 11 | | Murata, Tomohiro | Overall | 83 | - | - | - | 19 | - | - | - | | Morita, Mitsuko | Broadcasting, Leisure, Other Services | - | - | 24 | - | - | - | 11 | - | | Soejima, Tomokazu | Shipbuilding, Plant Engineering | - | 2 | - | - | - | 14 | - | - | | Morgan Stanley Ranking | | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | | | | | | Morgan Stanley Points* | | 9,793 | 5,607 | 4,022 | 2,652 | | | | |
2000 24 ranked analysts in 27 industries, strategy, quantitative, economics; 4 ranked in the overall category
1999 19 ranked analysts in 20 industries, strategy, quantitative, economics; 4 ranked analysts in the overall category
1998 19 ranked analysts in 18 industries, strategy, quantitative, economics; 3 ranked analysts in the overall category*excludes strategy, quantitative, economics, technical, overall category
1997-2000 Total points include departures not listed above.
Points and ranks at former affiliation in italics. (1) Electronics/Semiconductor in 1997.
(2) Consumer Electronics & Components in 1997.
(3) Precision & Other Mfg. (Components excluded) in 1997.
(4) New category in 1998. Combined with Broadcasting, Leisure, Others in 1999.
(5) Utilities and Transportation in one category in 1998.
(6) Retail & Services 1996-97; Retail 98-99; Retail into two categories 2000.
(7) New Category in 2000.
(8) Machinery includes precision instruments from 2000.
Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted by mailing questionnaires to 1,230 domestic equity portfolio managers from mid-February through late March. It received 949 replies (including 146 from foreign-related firms in Japan) for a response rate of 77.2%. By analyst, a combined total was calculated based on three points being awarded for each first ranking, two points for each second, and one point for each third. In the case of the most popular industry analyst overall category, five points were rewarded for each first, four for each second, three for each third, two for each fourth, and one for each fifth.
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